Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Belmont, East Tremont, West Farms, and Bathgate. Anchored by the Bronx Zoo, the New York Botanical Garden, Arthur Avenue's commercial strip, and the 2/5 train along Boston Road and the Cross Bronx Expressway.
March 2026 produced no tracked signals in Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont. No category crossed an anomaly threshold in either direction, making this a fully quiet month against the multi-year baseline.
The 12-month picture is broadly downward across most categories. Motor vehicle theft is down 17.8% against the prior year — 250 incidents vs. 304 — and arson is down 26.7% (11 vs. 15). Homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, and vandalism are all running below their prior-year totals as well. Sexual assault (171 vs. 162, up 5.6%) and other larceny (1,597 vs. 1,556, up 2.6%) are the only categories above their prior-year marks, but neither moved enough this month to register a signal.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
1,602 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 1,597.
Open page →Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
1,589 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 1,597.
Open page →Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
1,582 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 1,597.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont has spiked robbery historically (10 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Robbery | 10 | 100% |
| Sexual assault | 9 | 88.9% |
| Other larceny | 9 | 0% |
| Aggravated assault | 8 | 100% |
| Burglary | 1 | — too few |
| Homicide | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.