Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Belmont, East Tremont, West Farms, and Bathgate. Anchored by the Bronx Zoo, the New York Botanical Garden, Arthur Avenue's commercial strip, and the 2/5 train along Boston Road and the Cross Bronx Expressway.
Three signals surfaced in Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont this month: one single-month below-trend move and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward, with property crime categories leading the decline.
Vandalism is the sharpest signal — current 12-month volume is 527 incidents against a baseline of 807.72, and the category registers both a one-month drop and a sustained multi-year shift downward. Motor vehicle theft is also running well below its prior-year pace, down 37.4% against the prior 12 months (191 vs. 305). Everything else across the tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, other larceny — is within the same broadly declining range, with no fresh spikes recorded this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 527 incidents — about 35% below the 808 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 527, down 32% from 777 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 191, down 37% from 305 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
528 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 527.
Open page →Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
531 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 527.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
532 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 527.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.