Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Belmont, East Tremont, West Farms, and Bathgate. Anchored by the Bronx Zoo, the New York Botanical Garden, Arthur Avenue's commercial strip, and the 2/5 train along Boston Road and the Cross Bronx Expressway.
Three categories moved in Bronx CD6, Belmont / East Tremont this July 2026 briefing: one one-month below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts, both pointing downward. The overall shape is a neighborhood where crime volume has been falling across multiple categories for long enough that single-month dips are now running alongside multi-year compression.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the trailing 12 months at 571 incidents against a prior-year count of 752, a 24.1% reduction. Robbery and motor vehicle theft both carry sustained-shift signals, not just quiet months: robbery is down 28.9% over the trailing 12 months (318 vs 447), and motor vehicle theft is down 42.5% (172 vs 299). Everything else this month, including aggravated assault, burglary, and other larceny, ran within range but also trended lower year-over-year.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 571 incidents — about 29% below the 806 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 172, down 43% from 299 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 318, down 29% from 447 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
569 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 571.
Open page →Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands
574 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 571.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
576 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont's 571.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.