Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers the Upper East Side, Lenox Hill, Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, and Roosevelt Island. Anchored by the Museum Mile along Fifth Avenue, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, Central Park's eastern edge, the 4/5/6 Lexington line, and the Second Avenue Subway's Q stops.
Nine signals shaped May 2026 in Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side: three one-month below-trend drops and six sustained shifts, the latter pointing to structural, multi-month declines rather than a single quiet period. The dominant shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Theft from Vehicle, Vandalism, and Robbery all ran below trend this month. The 12-month picture reinforces how deep these moves go: Theft from Vehicle stands at 39 incidents against 77 in the prior year, down 49.4%; Burglary is down 40.3% (172 vs. 288); and Robbery has fallen 37.9% to 123 from 198. The six sustained-shift signals confirm this isn't noise — the pattern has been building across the trailing 24 months.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 57% below the 91 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 235 incidents — about 45% below the 425 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 123 incidents — about 40% below the 204 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 3,217, down 37% from 5,086 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 172, down 40% from 288 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 235, down 35% from 361 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 123, down 38% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side's 39.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side's 39.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 above Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side's 39.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.