Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers the Upper East Side, Lenox Hill, Yorkville, Carnegie Hill, and Roosevelt Island. Anchored by the Museum Mile along Fifth Avenue, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, Central Park's eastern edge, the 4/5/6 Lexington line, and the Second Avenue Subway's Q stops.
Eight categories moved in Upper East Side this August, three single-month below-trend signals and five sustained shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The structural pattern is broadly downward across both property crime and violent crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest single-month signal: 39 incidents in the current 12-month window against 73 in the prior year, down 46.6%. Vandalism and robbery round out the top three below-trend signals, vandalism down 37.5% year-over-year to 227 incidents, robbery down 30.9% to 121. The five sustained-shift signals, covering burglary, other larceny, aggravated assault, sexual assault, and motor vehicle theft, reinforce that these are not one-month anomalies but multi-year structural declines across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 57% below the 90 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 227 incidents — about 46% below the 422 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 121 incidents — about 40% below the 203 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 3,028, down 38% from 4,878 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 227, down 38% from 363 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 174, down 39% from 287 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 47% from 73 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
39 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side's 39.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
36 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side's 39.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side's 39.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.