Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Borough Park, Kensington, and Ocean Parkway North. Anchored by the 13th Avenue commercial corridor, Maimonides Medical Center, Ocean Parkway's tree-lined median, Green-Wood Cemetery's southern border, and the F and D subway lines.
Seven tracked signals shaped May 2026 in Borough Park — four are sustained shifts, meaning structural multi-month declines, and three are single-month below-trend readings. The weight of the evidence runs in one direction: broadly lower across property crime and violent categories alike.
Vandalism, burglary, and theft from vehicle all ran below trend this month. The 12-month vandalism total stands at 211 against a prior-year total of 357, down 40.9%. Burglary is down 40.0% and theft from vehicle down 50.8% over the same window — both categories roughly half their prior-year pace. Robbery and aggravated assault also sit well below prior-year levels at -29.2% and -19.6%, respectively, consistent with the sustained-shift pattern showing up across the neighborhood's tracked categories.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 211 incidents — about 53% below the 446 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 84 incidents — about 50% below the 167 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 89 incidents — about 64% below the 245 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 837, down 37% from 1,334 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 211, down 41% from 357 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 89, down 51% from 181 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 84, down 40% from 140 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
216 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 211.
Open page →Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
229 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 211.
Open page →Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck
193 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 below Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 211.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.