Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Borough Park, Kensington, and Ocean Parkway North. Anchored by the 13th Avenue commercial corridor, Maimonides Medical Center, Ocean Parkway's tree-lined median, Green-Wood Cemetery's southern border, and the F and D subway lines.
Seven categories moved in Brooklyn CD12, Borough Park this July, none upward. Three ran below trend for the month, vandalism, burglary, and theft from vehicle, and four reflect sustained structural shifts, multi-month patterns rather than a single quiet period. The overall shape is a broad, consistent decline across property crime with no offsetting spikes anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism is the strongest signal: 228 incidents over the current 12 months against 332 in the prior year, down 31.3%. Burglary fell 39.4% year over year (86 vs. 142), and theft from vehicle is down 37.7% (104 vs. 167). Robbery and sexual assault also carry sustained-shift signals, down 21.4% and 25.0% respectively against the prior 12 months. Every tracked category in the neighborhood is running below last year's pace, and the sustained-shift count indicates this is not a one-month dip.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 228 incidents — about 49% below the 444 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 86 incidents — about 48% below the 166 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 104 incidents — about 57% below the 243 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 951, down 26% from 1,286 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 228, down 31% from 332 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 104, down 38% from 167 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 86, down 39% from 142 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
236 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 228.
Open page →Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
236 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 228.
Open page →Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck
202 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 228.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.