Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Borough Park, Kensington, and Ocean Parkway North. Anchored by the 13th Avenue commercial corridor, Maimonides Medical Center, Ocean Parkway's tree-lined median, Green-Wood Cemetery's southern border, and the F and D subway lines.
Six categories moved in Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park this March: three ran below trend, one registered a spike, and two reflect longer structural shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward across property crime, with one counter-current in motor vehicle theft.
Motor vehicle theft is the clearest outlier — 225 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline of 119.75, up 17.8% year-over-year. Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend; vandalism is down 28.9% against the prior 12 months (266 vs. 374), and theft from vehicle is down 33.9% (119 vs. 180). The two sustained-shift signals indicate these property-crime declines are not a one-month dip but a multi-month structural move.
Notable signals 4
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 225 incidents — about 88% above the 120 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 266 incidents — about 41% below the 449 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 119 incidents — about 52% below the 247 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 37% below the 167 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 266, down 29% from 374 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 119, down 34% from 180 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
234 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 225.
Open page →Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
242 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 225.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
245 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 225.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (27 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 77.8% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 27 | 77.8% |
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.