Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Borough Park, Kensington, and Ocean Parkway North. Anchored by the 13th Avenue commercial corridor, Maimonides Medical Center, Ocean Parkway's tree-lined median, Green-Wood Cemetery's southern border, and the F and D subway lines.
Seven categories moved in Borough Park this August, all in the same direction. Three ran below their single-month trend (vandalism, burglary, theft from vehicle) and four registered as structural sustained shifts, meaning the 12-month pattern has diverged meaningfully from the prior 12 months. The breadth here is notable: this is not one quiet category dragging down the average, it is a broad, multi-category move downward across both property and violent crime.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal, with the trailing 12 months at 200 incidents against 323 in the year before, a 38.1% reduction. Burglary and theft from vehicle show similar scale: burglary is down 41.5% year-over-year (79 vs. 135 incidents) and theft from vehicle is down 43.6% (92 vs. 163). The sustained-shift signals in categories like aggravated assault (down 19.7%, 175 vs. 218) and other larceny (down 32.1%, 857 vs. 1,263) indicate these are not one-month dips but a multi-year structural change holding across the neighborhood.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 200 incidents — about 55% below the 442 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 79 incidents — about 52% below the 166 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 92 incidents — about 62% below the 242 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 857, down 32% from 1,263 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 200, down 38% from 323 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 92, down 44% from 163 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 79, down 42% from 135 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
206 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 200.
Open page →Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
209 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 200.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park's 200.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.