Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Fort Hamilton. Anchored by the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach, the Belt Parkway and Shore Road waterfront, the Third and Fifth Avenue commercial corridors, Dyker Beach Park and golf course, and the R train along Fourth Avenue.
Three categories moved in Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights this July: two one-month below-trend signals and one sustained structural shift. The overall shape is downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle both ran below trend on the month. Other larceny tells the longer story: the trailing 12 months came in at 915 incidents against 1,436 in the prior year, a 36.3% year-over-year decline that has now settled into a sustained shift rather than a single quiet month. Vandalism is similarly down 20.5% year-over-year, 236 incidents against 297, reinforcing that the downward move in property crime here is not just July noise.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 236 incidents — about 44% below the 425 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 94 incidents — about 56% below the 214 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 915, down 36% from 1,436 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
236 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 236.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
228 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 236.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
259 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 236.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.