Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Fort Hamilton. Anchored by the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach, the Belt Parkway and Shore Road waterfront, the Third and Fifth Avenue commercial corridors, Dyker Beach Park and golf course, and the R train along Fourth Avenue.
Seven tracked signals surfaced in Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights this month: three one-month below-trend drops and four sustained structural shifts. The dominant pattern is a broad, multi-category pullback across both property crime and violence — not a single-category story.
Vandalism leads on signal strength, with the trailing 12-month total at 229 incidents against a baseline of 428.4 — down 26.4% year over year. Burglary and theft from vehicle also ran below trend this month, and the sustained-shift signals underlying those categories point to structural moves: other larceny is down 42.1% against the prior 12 months (883 vs. 1,525), burglary down 39.3% (54 vs. 89), and aggravated assault down 28.7% (102 vs. 143). Everything else tracked this month stayed within normal range.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 229 incidents — about 47% below the 428 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 54 incidents — about 50% below the 109 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 86 incidents — about 60% below the 217 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 883, down 42% from 1,525 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 229, down 26% from 311 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 54, down 39% from 89 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 102, down 29% from 143 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
235 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 229.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
241 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 above Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 229.
Open page →Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
216 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 229.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.