Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Fort Hamilton. Anchored by the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach, the Belt Parkway and Shore Road waterfront, the Third and Fifth Avenue commercial corridors, Dyker Beach Park and golf course, and the R train along Fourth Avenue.
Five categories moved in Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights this August briefing, three one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The shape is uniformly downward: no spikes, no rare events, no categories running above their historical range. The breadth across property and violent crime alike makes this more than a quiet month in a single bucket.
Vandalism is the strongest signal, with 209 incidents over the current 12 months against 296 in the prior year, down 29.4%. Theft from vehicle and burglary also ran below trend in August, and both show 12-month totals well off their prior-year marks, down 18.0% and 21.7% respectively. Other larceny carries the most dramatic year-over-year gap in the dataset, 809 incidents against 1,386 prior, down 41.6%, a move that crosses from single-month noise into a structural shift that has been building across multiple reporting periods.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 209 incidents — about 51% below the 424 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 82 incidents — about 61% below the 213 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 65 incidents — about 40% below the 108 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 809, down 42% from 1,386 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 209, down 29% from 296 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
206 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 209.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 209.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 209.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.