Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Fort Hamilton. Anchored by the Verrazzano-Narrows Bridge approach, the Belt Parkway and Shore Road waterfront, the Third and Fifth Avenue commercial corridors, Dyker Beach Park and golf course, and the R train along Fourth Avenue.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights this month: two one-month below-trend drops and one sustained structural shift. The overall shape is downward across property crime, with nothing in the violent categories producing a signal.
Theft from vehicle and vandalism both ran below trend this month — theft from vehicle's trailing 12-month total is 96 incidents against a baseline average of 220.11. Other larceny's sustained shift reflects a longer structural change: 1,080 incidents over the current 12 months against 1,602 in the prior year, a 32.6% reduction. Robbery is the one category moving in the opposite direction — 71 incidents in the current 12 months vs. 52 prior, up 36.5% — but it did not cross an anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 96 incidents — about 56% below the 220 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 280 incidents — about 35% below the 431 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,080, down 33% from 1,602 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
101 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 96.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
87 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 96.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
86 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights's 96.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.