Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers Ridgewood, Maspeth, Middle Village, and Glendale. Anchored by the Long Island Expressway, the Newtown Creek industrial corridor on the Brooklyn border, the Forest Park western edge, the M train along Myrtle Avenue, and All Faiths and Mount Olivet cemeteries.
Two categories moved in Ridgewood / Maspeth this March — one a single-month below-trend signal, one a structural multi-month shift. The overall picture is modest but directionally downward: both signals point to less activity, not more.
Vandalism ran below its multi-year baseline this month, with 451 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 625.68. Burglary's sustained shift tells a longer story: 146 incidents in the trailing 12 months against 200 in the prior year, a 27.0% decline that reflects a structural change rather than a single quiet month. All other tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft — came in within normal range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 451 incidents — about 28% below the 626 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 146, down 27% from 200 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
452 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth's 451.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
447 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth's 451.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
455 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth's 451.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.