Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers Ridgewood, Maspeth, Middle Village, and Glendale. Anchored by the Long Island Expressway, the Newtown Creek industrial corridor on the Brooklyn border, the Forest Park western edge, the M train along Myrtle Avenue, and All Faiths and Mount Olivet cemeteries.
Two categories moved in Queens CD5 (Ridgewood / Maspeth) this August briefing, both below trend. Vandalism and burglary each registered below-trend signals against a broader backdrop of sustained 12-month declines across the neighborhood. The overall shape is one of broad, broad-based property crime reduction, not a single outlier month.
Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals: the trailing 12-month total stands at 358 incidents, down 22.7% against the prior 12-month total of 463. Burglary follows a similar pattern, 127 incidents over the current 12 months against 169 in the year before, a 24.9% reduction. Every other tracked category in the neighborhood, from robbery to motor vehicle theft to other larceny, also posted 12-month declines, with aggravated assault down 16.4% and theft from vehicle down 12.7%, placing August 2026 within a consistent downward run across virtually the entire crime mix.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 358 incidents — about 42% below the 616 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 127 incidents — about 46% below the 235 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth's 358.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth's 358.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
365 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth's 358.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.