Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Howard Beach, Ozone Park, South Ozone Park, and Lindenwood. Anchored by Aqueduct Racetrack and Resorts World casino, JFK Airport's western edge along the Belt Parkway, the Van Wyck and Belt Parkway interchange, Spring Creek Park, and the A train to Far Rockaway.
Six categories moved in Queens CD10 (Howard Beach / Ozone Park) this August, split evenly between one-month below-trend signals and longer-term sustained shifts. The structural pattern is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism is the sharpest signal: the trailing 12 months show 355 incidents against 505 in the prior year, a drop of 29.7%. Burglary and theft from vehicle followed the same direction, down 39.7% and 37.9% respectively over the same window. Across the nine tracked categories, every single one is running below its prior-year total, with the three sustained-shift signals confirming this is a multi-year structural move, not a single quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 355 incidents — about 46% below the 662 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 73 incidents — about 48% below the 140 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 108 incidents — about 54% below the 235 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 355, down 30% from 505 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 108, down 38% from 174 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 73, down 40% from 121 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 355.
Open page →Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 355.
Open page →Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
350 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 355.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.