Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Howard Beach, Ozone Park, South Ozone Park, and Lindenwood. Anchored by Aqueduct Racetrack and Resorts World casino, JFK Airport's western edge along the Belt Parkway, the Van Wyck and Belt Parkway interchange, Spring Creek Park, and the A train to Far Rockaway.
Four categories moved in Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park this March: three ran below trend in a single month and one reflects a longer structural shift. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism is the most prominent signal — current 12-month volume is 447 against a prior-year count of 578, down 22.7%. Theft from vehicle and burglary also ran below trend: theft from vehicle is down 39.8% over the trailing 12 months (124 vs. 206), and burglary is down 13.4% (103 vs. 119). Motor vehicle theft is the one counter-move, up 14.2% over the same window, though it did not cross the threshold for a signal this month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 447 incidents — about 33% below the 670 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 124 incidents — about 48% below the 238 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 103 incidents — about 27% below the 141 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 40% from 206 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
451 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 447.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
452 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 447.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
442 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 447.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.