Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Howard Beach, Ozone Park, South Ozone Park, and Lindenwood. Anchored by Aqueduct Racetrack and Resorts World casino, JFK Airport's western edge along the Belt Parkway, the Van Wyck and Belt Parkway interchange, Spring Creek Park, and the A train to Far Rockaway.
Six categories moved in Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park this month: three one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts, with the weight of movement running uniformly downward across both property and violent crime.
Vandalism leads the one-month signals — the trailing 12-month total of 373 is well below the multi-year baseline and down 32.2% against the prior year's 550. Theft from Vehicle and Burglary also ran below trend, with theft from vehicle down 43.1% year-over-year (107 vs. 188) and burglary down 22.1% (88 vs. 113). The sustained-shift signals reinforce the same direction: Aggravated Assault is down 24.7%, Sexual Assault down 25.1%, and Other Larceny down 24.2% against their respective prior-year periods — all three reflecting multi-month structural movement, not a single quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 373 incidents — about 44% below the 667 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 55% below the 237 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 37% below the 141 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 373, down 32% from 550 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 43% from 188 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 143, down 25% from 191 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 373.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
375 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 373.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
371 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park's 373.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.