Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD13 covers Coney Island, Brighton Beach, Sea Gate, and Gravesend. Anchored by the Coney Island boardwalk and amusement parks, the Brighton Beach commercial strip on Brighton Beach Avenue, MCU Park, the New York Aquarium, and the D/F/N/Q terminus at Coney Island–Stillwell Avenue.
July 2026 produced a single notable signal in Brooklyn CD13, Coney Island / Brighton Beach: vandalism running below its multi-year trend. With only one category moving this month, the overall picture is one of relative stability across property and violent crime alike.
Vandalism is the one category that cleared the anomaly threshold, posting 450 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 476 in the prior year, a 5.5% year-over-year decline. Every other tracked category, including robbery (149 incidents, down 6.9%), motor vehicle theft (92, down 20.7%), and other larceny (1,105, down 7.6%), moved in the same downward direction but stayed within the normal year-over-year range. The broader 12-month trend across nearly all categories is modestly lower volume compared to the prior year, though none of those moves crossed the threshold for a sustained structural shift.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 450 incidents — about 29% below the 637 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
441 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's 450.
Open page →Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick
463 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 above Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's 450.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
422 incidents over the past 12 months — 28 below Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's 450.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.