Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD13 covers Coney Island, Brighton Beach, Sea Gate, and Gravesend. Anchored by the Coney Island boardwalk and amusement parks, the Brighton Beach commercial strip on Brighton Beach Avenue, MCU Park, the New York Aquarium, and the D/F/N/Q terminus at Coney Island–Stillwell Avenue.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach this month: one below-trend signal, one single-month spike, and one sustained structural shift. The mix isn't broad, but the combination of an aggravated assault spike alongside a multi-month structural increase in the same category gives this briefing a distinct shape — the violence signal is layered, not isolated.
Aggravated assault is the month's central data point. The current 12-month total is 470 incidents, up 30.6% against the prior 12 months (360), and well above the multi-year baseline. Vandalism ran below trend, a single-month drop in a category that is itself down 17.7% over the trailing year — 457 incidents vs. 555 in the prior period. Everything else in the neighborhood held within its usual range.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 470 incidents — about 48% above the 318 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 457 incidents — about 29% below the 644 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 470, up 31% from 360 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City
466 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's 470.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
465 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's 470.
Open page →Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
475 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's 470.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beachdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Sexual assault | 2 | — too few |
| Aggravated assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.