Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Throgs Neck, Co-op City, Country Club, City Island, Pelham Bay, and Schuylerville. Anchored by Co-op City — one of the largest cooperative housing developments in the country — the Throgs Neck Bridge and Bronx-Whitestone Bridge approaches, Pelham Bay Park's southern edge, and Orchard Beach.
Five signals across Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City this month: one one-month below-trend drop and four sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, and the sustained-shift count indicates this isn't a single quiet month — it reflects a multi-year repositioning across several categories.
Vandalism registered the sharpest single-month signal, with the trailing 12-month total at 373 incidents against a baseline of 564.71. Robbery and Burglary are both sustained shifts downward — robbery at 138 incidents over the current 12 months vs. 227 in the prior year (down 39.2%), burglary at 94 vs. 182 (down 48.4%). Aggravated Assault and Theft from Vehicle round out the sustained-shift picture, and every other tracked category is also below its prior-year level — none were noisy enough to cross the signal threshold, but none moved against the grain either.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 373 incidents — about 34% below the 565 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 94, down 48% from 182 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 373, down 29% from 527 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 138, down 39% from 227 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 108, down 33% from 160 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 373.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
375 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 373.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
371 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 373.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.