Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Throgs Neck, Co-op City, Country Club, City Island, Pelham Bay, and Schuylerville. Anchored by Co-op City — one of the largest cooperative housing developments in the country — the Throgs Neck Bridge and Bronx-Whitestone Bridge approaches, Pelham Bay Park's southern edge, and Orchard Beach.
March 2026 produced a single tracked signal in Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City: a sustained structural shift in burglary. That one signal carries real weight, but the broader picture is a neighborhood where most categories are holding flat or running modestly below prior-year levels.
Burglary is down 40.5% against the prior 12 months — 113 incidents vs. 190 the year before — a gap large enough and consistent enough to classify as a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Robbery is also lower on a 12-month basis, off 17.8% to 175 from 213. The one category moving the other direction is Motor Vehicle Theft, up 23.9% over the same window (549 vs. 443), though it did not cross the anomaly threshold this month. Everything else — vandalism, theft from vehicle, aggravated assault — stayed within normal range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 113, down 41% from 190 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
115 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 113.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 113.
Open page →Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
106 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 113.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City has spiked aggravated assault historically (24 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 24 | 100% |
| Burglary | 8 | 0% |
| Other larceny | 4 | — too few |
| Motor vehicle theft | 3 | — too few |
| Sexual assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 3 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.