Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Throgs Neck, Co-op City, Country Club, City Island, Pelham Bay, and Schuylerville. Anchored by Co-op City — one of the largest cooperative housing developments in the country — the Throgs Neck Bridge and Bronx-Whitestone Bridge approaches, Pelham Bay Park's southern edge, and Orchard Beach.
Two sustained structural shifts define July 2026 in Bronx CD10, Throgs Neck / Co-op City. Both signals point in the same direction: robbery and burglary are running well below where they were in the prior 12-month period, and neither is a single-month dip. Both meet the threshold for a multi-year realignment, not just a quiet stretch.
Robbery has fallen 46.6% against the prior 12 months, 124 incidents vs 232. Burglary is down 30.5%, 114 vs 164. Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault, vandalism, motor vehicle theft, and other larceny, moved in the same downward direction on a 12-month basis but did not cross the threshold for a structural signal this period. The breadth of the declines across the full category list reinforces that the two sustained shifts are not outliers in an otherwise flat neighborhood.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 47% from 232 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 114, down 31% from 164 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
112 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 114.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
111 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 114.
Open page →Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel
109 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 114.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.