Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 covers Throgs Neck, Co-op City, Country Club, City Island, Pelham Bay, and Schuylerville. Anchored by Co-op City — one of the largest cooperative housing developments in the country — the Throgs Neck Bridge and Bronx-Whitestone Bridge approaches, Pelham Bay Park's southern edge, and Orchard Beach.
Six categories moved in Bronx CD10, Throgs Neck / Co-op City this August 2026 briefing. One registered a single-month below-trend signal, vandalism, and five show sustained structural shifts: multi-month declines that have reset the 12-month baseline across robbery, burglary, and three other categories. The overall shape is a broad, durable downward move across both property and violent crime.
Robbery is down 49.8% against the prior 12 months, 112 incidents versus 223, one of the steeper year-over-year moves in the neighborhood's tracked categories. Burglary fell 32.1% over the same period, 108 incidents versus 159. Vandalism's one-month signal this period is consistent with that broader direction: 365 incidents over the trailing 12 months versus 516 in the prior year, a 29.3% reduction. The remaining categories, where data exists, stayed within range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 365 incidents — about 35% below the 563 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 112, down 50% from 223 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 379, down 29% from 533 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 365, down 29% from 516 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 108, down 32% from 159 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 365.
Open page →Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 365.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City's 365.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.