Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Elmhurst and Corona. Anchored by Queens Center mall, the Elmhurst Hospital Center campus, the Long Island Expressway and Grand Central Parkway corridors, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park's western edge, and the 7 train along Roosevelt Avenue.
Nine tracked signals surfaced in Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona this month: seven sustained shifts and two single-month below-trend drops. The structural pattern is broad and consistently downward — every category in the 12-month window is running below the prior year, and the sustained-shift count of seven means this isn't a quiet blip but a multi-month compression across the neighborhood's crime profile.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle registered as the sharpest single-month drops, while robbery leads the sustained-shift tier — down 36.6% over the trailing 12 months (329 incidents vs. 519 the year before). Theft from vehicle has fallen 51.9% year-over-year, the steepest relative decline in the category mix. Everything else — aggravated assault, sexual assault, burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism — is also running below its prior-year baseline, with no category moving in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 371 incidents — about 48% below the 708 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 88 incidents — about 66% below the 259 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,239, down 34% from 3,386 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 486, down 36% from 755 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 204, down 44% from 365 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 371, down 36% from 575 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 371.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 371.
Open page →Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
369 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 371.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.