Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Elmhurst and Corona. Anchored by Queens Center mall, the Elmhurst Hospital Center campus, the Long Island Expressway and Grand Central Parkway corridors, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park's western edge, and the 7 train along Roosevelt Avenue.
Six categories moved in Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona this month — one single-month below-trend signal and five sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The dominant shape is a multi-year drawdown across property and violent crime categories, not a single-month anomaly.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal: the current 12-month total of 455 sits well below the prior-year count of 598, a 23.9% year-over-year decline. Robbery and aggravated assault both carry sustained-shift designations, meaning the lower volumes reflect a structural change across multiple months — robbery down 25.1% (400 vs. 534) and aggravated assault down 27.1% (581 vs. 797) against the prior 12 months. Motor vehicle theft, at 247 incidents against 244 the prior year, is the only category that didn't follow the downward pattern.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 455 incidents — about 36% below the 712 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 110, down 50% from 220 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 581, down 27% from 797 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 244, down 37% from 387 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 400, down 25% from 534 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
457 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 455.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
452 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 455.
Open page →Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
451 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 455.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.