Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Elmhurst and Corona. Anchored by Queens Center mall, the Elmhurst Hospital Center campus, the Long Island Expressway and Grand Central Parkway corridors, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park's western edge, and the 7 train along Roosevelt Avenue.
August 2026 brought eight tracked signals across Queens CD4, Elmhurst / Corona, all of them pointing in the same direction. Two categories registered single-month below-trend readings, vandalism and theft from vehicle, while six others showed sustained structural shifts, multi-month patterns that have now reshaped the trailing 12-month picture across property and violent crime alike. The breadth here is the story: this is not one category pulling the numbers down.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the current 12-month total at 385 incidents against 527 in the prior year, a 26.9% reduction. Theft from vehicle also ran below trend for the month. Robbery tells the longer story: 351 incidents over the current 12 months versus 471 in the year before, down 25.5%, and classified as a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Sexual assault and burglary show even steeper 12-month drops, 35.5% and 38.8% respectively, both in the sustained-shift group. Every other tracked category was also down year-over-year, and nothing in the data registered as a spike or rare event this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 385 incidents — about 45% below the 702 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 91 incidents — about 64% below the 255 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,095, down 33% from 3,139 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 200, down 36% from 310 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 385, down 27% from 527 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 351, down 26% from 471 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
389 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 385.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
403 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 385.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
365 incidents over the past 12 months — 20 below Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 385.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.