Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 covers Elmhurst and Corona. Anchored by Queens Center mall, the Elmhurst Hospital Center campus, the Long Island Expressway and Grand Central Parkway corridors, Flushing Meadows–Corona Park's western edge, and the 7 train along Roosevelt Avenue.
Five categories moved in Queens CD4 (Elmhurst / Corona) this July, one below trend on the month and four reflecting structural, multi-month shifts downward. The dominant pattern is sustained: property and violent crime alike have been running below their prior-year levels across a long enough window to count as directional, not incidental.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the trailing 12-month total at 422 against 543 in the prior year, down 22.3%. Sexual assault and burglary are both sustained shifts, each pointing the same direction: sexual assault is down 28.6% year over year (227 vs. 318), and burglary is down 37.1% (124 vs. 197). Motor vehicle theft is the one category holding roughly flat, off just 1.3% against the prior 12 months. Everything else this month was within range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 422 incidents — about 40% below the 705 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,367, down 26% from 3,200 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 124, down 37% from 197 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 227, down 29% from 318 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 100, down 35% from 154 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
407 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 422.
Open page →Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
406 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 below Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 422.
Open page →Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
441 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 above Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona's 422.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.