Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Kew Gardens, Woodhaven, Richmond Hill, and Ozone Park's northern edge. Anchored by Forest Park, the Jamaica Avenue commercial corridor, the Kew Gardens civic / courthouse complex, the Van Wyck Expressway, and the J/Z train along Jamaica Avenue.
Three signals surfaced in Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven this month: two one-month below-trend drops and one sustained structural shift. The shape is narrowly downward, concentrated in property crime — specifically theft from vehicle and vandalism — with the sustained-shift signal reinforcing that the theft-from-vehicle decline isn't just a single quiet month.
Theft from vehicle is the clearest mover: the current 12-month total is 120, down 33.7% against the prior 12 months (181), and well below the multi-year baseline of 211.78 — the sustained-shift signal marks this as a structural change, not noise. Vandalism also ran below trend this month, with 465 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 489 the year prior, a 4.9% decline. Everything else — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, other larceny, motor vehicle theft — stayed within range and did not register a signal.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 120 incidents — about 43% below the 212 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 465 incidents — about 25% below the 618 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 120, down 34% from 181 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
119 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 120.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
122 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 120.
Open page →Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
116 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 120.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.