Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Kew Gardens, Woodhaven, Richmond Hill, and Ozone Park's northern edge. Anchored by Forest Park, the Jamaica Avenue commercial corridor, the Kew Gardens civic / courthouse complex, the Van Wyck Expressway, and the J/Z train along Jamaica Avenue.
Five signals emerged in Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven this May: two one-month below-trend drops and three sustained structural shifts. The shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal — current 12-month volume stands at 369 incidents against a multi-year baseline mean of 614.27, a gap that reflects both the May drop and a category running well below its historical rate. Theft from vehicle appears twice in the top signals: a one-month drop and a sustained shift, consistent with a 12-month total of 102 against 153 the prior year, down 33.3%. Robbery and burglary round out the broader picture, off 22.2% and 20.6% respectively over the trailing 12 months — everything else tracked this period held within range.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 369 incidents — about 40% below the 614 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 102 incidents — about 52% below the 210 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,048, down 30% from 1,496 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 369, down 25% from 492 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 102, down 33% from 153 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
371 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 369.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 369.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 369.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.