Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Kew Gardens, Woodhaven, Richmond Hill, and Ozone Park's northern edge. Anchored by Forest Park, the Jamaica Avenue commercial corridor, the Kew Gardens civic / courthouse complex, the Van Wyck Expressway, and the J/Z train along Jamaica Avenue.
Five signals surfaced in Queens CD9 (Kew Gardens / Woodhaven) this August, a mix of two one-month below-trend readings and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal: the trailing 12 months show 350 incidents against 485 in the prior year, down 27.8%, and this month registered a one-month below-trend reading on top of that structural decline. Theft from vehicle appears twice in the top signals, both a one-month below-trend result and a sustained multi-month shift, with the 12-month total at 89 against 141 the year before, down 36.9%. Other larceny rounds out the broader picture, off 33.0% over the same 12-month window, 993 incidents against 1,481. Everything else in the tracked categories was within its expected range.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 350 incidents — about 43% below the 609 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 89 incidents — about 57% below the 208 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 993, down 33% from 1,481 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 350, down 28% from 485 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 89, down 37% from 141 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood
348 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 350.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 350.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
343 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 350.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.