Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers Kew Gardens, Woodhaven, Richmond Hill, and Ozone Park's northern edge. Anchored by Forest Park, the Jamaica Avenue commercial corridor, the Kew Gardens civic / courthouse complex, the Van Wyck Expressway, and the J/Z train along Jamaica Avenue.
Two categories moved in Queens CD9 this month, both below trend, and both property crime. The shape is narrow but consistent: a quiet month with no spikes or rare events, and the movement that did surface points downward.
Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals, with 395 incidents in the current 12 months against 482 in the prior year, down 18.0%. Theft from vehicle is also running below its prior-year pace, 102 incidents versus 141, down 27.7%. Aggravated assault, robbery, burglary, and motor vehicle theft all remained within their expected ranges for the period.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 395 incidents — about 35% below the 611 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 102 incidents — about 51% below the 209 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
394 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 395.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
398 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 395.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
400 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven's 395.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.