Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 covers Jackson Heights, East Elmhurst, and North Corona. Anchored by the 74th Street–Roosevelt Avenue subway hub, the Jackson Heights historic district of garden apartments, LaGuardia Airport's southern edge along the Grand Central Parkway, and the 7 and E/F/M/R trains.
Two signals moved in Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst this month: one one-month below-trend drop and one sustained structural shift. The overall picture is downward, and the two signals reinforce rather than complicate each other.
Vandalism registered a below-trend signal, with the current 12-month total at 480 against a baseline of 643.24 — a gap that reflects meaningful single-month softness. Burglary is the sustained-shift signal: 137 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 207 in the prior year, down 33.8% — not a quiet-month artifact but a multi-month structural move. Every other tracked category, including robbery (291 vs. 349, down 16.6%) and aggravated assault (475 vs. 576, down 17.5%), ran within range this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 480 incidents — about 25% below the 643 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 137, down 34% from 207 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
478 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 480.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
474 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 480.
Open page →Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
465 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 480.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.