Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 covers Jackson Heights, East Elmhurst, and North Corona. Anchored by the 74th Street–Roosevelt Avenue subway hub, the Jackson Heights historic district of garden apartments, LaGuardia Airport's southern edge along the Grand Central Parkway, and the 7 and E/F/M/R trains.
Ten categories moved in Queens CD3 (Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst) this August briefing. Seven registered as sustained shifts, structural multi-month changes rather than single-month noise, and three ran below trend in the current window. The dominant pattern is a broad, durable decline across both violent and property crime.
Vandalism, sexual assault, and theft from vehicle were the three strongest single-month below-trend signals. Vandalism is the sharpest: the trailing 12 months came in at 358 incidents against 483 in the prior year, down 25.9%. Sexual assault fell 38.0% year over year (152 vs. 245), and theft from vehicle is down 39.0% (133 vs. 218). Every other tracked category, including robbery, aggravated assault, and burglary, showed double-digit year-over-year declines consistent with the sustained-shift pattern, and none moved in the opposite direction this month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 358 incidents — about 44% below the 634 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 152 incidents — about 39% below the 250 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 133 incidents — about 48% below the 255 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,215, down 32% from 1,792 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 346, down 36% from 542 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 152, down 38% from 245 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 133, down 39% from 218 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
358 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 358.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 358.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
365 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 358.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.