Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 covers Jackson Heights, East Elmhurst, and North Corona. Anchored by the 74th Street–Roosevelt Avenue subway hub, the Jackson Heights historic district of garden apartments, LaGuardia Airport's southern edge along the Grand Central Parkway, and the 7 and E/F/M/R trains.
Eight categories moved in Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst this month — six as sustained multi-year structural shifts, two as single-month below-trend signals. The shape is broadly and consistently downward: every tracked category in the 12-month window is below the prior year, with no spikes and no rare events anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism and sexual assault are the two single-month drops, with vandalism's current 12-month total of 401 sitting well below its baseline. Robbery is among the six sustained shifts, down 33.6% against the prior 12 months — 235 incidents versus 354. Aggravated assault and sexual assault show the steepest 12-month declines at -37.8% and -47.1% respectively, and burglary is down 44.8%, all of which reinforces that the movement here is structural, not a one-month fluctuation.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 401 incidents — about 37% below the 640 average from prior years.
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 148 incidents — about 41% below the 250 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,323, down 32% from 1,943 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 366, down 38% from 588 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 47% from 280 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 111, down 45% from 201 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
386 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 401.
Open page →Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
378 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 401.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
375 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst's 401.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.