Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD14 covers Flatbush, Midwood, Ditmas Park, and Prospect Park South. Anchored by Brooklyn College, the Flatbush Avenue commercial corridor, the historic Victorian houses of Prospect Park South and Ditmas Park, and the Q and B subway lines.
August 2026 brought ten tracked signals across Brooklyn CD14, Flatbush / Midwood, and the shape is almost entirely downward. Eight of those signals are sustained shifts, meaning they reflect structural change across the trailing 12 months rather than a single quiet month. Two additional below-trend signals, vandalism and robbery, landed in August specifically. No spikes, no rare events.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month move, with the trailing 12-month count at 389 against 525 in the prior year, down 25.9%. Robbery shows up twice in the top signals, a one-month below-trend reading and a sustained multi-month shift, with 125 incidents in the current 12 months against 179 before, down 30.2%. The sustained-shift signals extend across aggravated assault, sexual assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, and motor vehicle theft, all running well below their prior-year totals, with aggravated assault down 41.6% and sexual assault down 57.7% as the steepest structural moves.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 389 incidents — about 32% below the 572 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 125 incidents — about 30% below the 177 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,294, down 26% from 1,754 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 272, down 42% from 466 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 90, down 58% from 213 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 389, down 26% from 525 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
385 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 389.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
403 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 389.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
365 incidents over the past 12 months — 24 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 389.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.