Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD14 covers Flatbush, Midwood, Ditmas Park, and Prospect Park South. Anchored by Brooklyn College, the Flatbush Avenue commercial corridor, the historic Victorian houses of Prospect Park South and Ditmas Park, and the Q and B subway lines.
Six categories moved in Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood this month: one single-month below-trend signal and five sustained shifts, all pointing downward. The structural picture is broadly negative across both violent and property crime — this isn't a quiet month so much as a month that confirms a multi-year reset in the neighborhood's baseline.
Vandalism led the single-month signals, running below its multi-year baseline against a current 12-month total of 386 incidents, down 27.2% from 530 the prior year. The five sustained shifts include aggravated assault (305 current vs. 472 prior, down 35.4%) and sexual assault (107 current vs. 230 prior, down 53.5%) — both well below where they tracked 12 months ago. Robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft are all running below prior-year levels as well, with nothing in the tracked categories moving in the opposite direction this period.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 386 incidents — about 33% below the 574 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 54% from 230 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 305, down 35% from 472 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 99, down 49% from 194 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 386, down 27% from 530 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
378 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 386.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
375 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 386.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 386.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.