Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD14 covers Flatbush, Midwood, Ditmas Park, and Prospect Park South. Anchored by Brooklyn College, the Flatbush Avenue commercial corridor, the historic Victorian houses of Prospect Park South and Ditmas Park, and the Q and B subway lines.
Four categories in Brooklyn CD14 registered sustained structural shifts in July 2026, all pointing the same direction: down. These are not single-month dips. Sustained shifts reflect a multi-month realignment between the current 12-month window and the 12 months before it, and all four are running meaningfully below their prior-year levels.
Aggravated assault leads the structural story, down 33.7% against the prior 12 months, 309 incidents vs 466. Sexual assault fell 49.8% over the same comparison window, 107 vs 213. Burglary is down 33.9%, 78 vs 118. Theft from vehicle, robbery, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism also declined year over year, though those did not register as structural shifts this month. Nothing spiked, and no rare events appeared. The month is uniformly downward across both violent and property categories.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 107, down 50% from 213 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 309, down 34% from 466 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 116, down 36% from 182 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 78, down 34% from 118 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Manhattan CD9 — Morningside Heights / Hamilton Heights
313 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 309.
Open page →Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
304 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 309.
Open page →Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
301 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood's 309.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.