Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers Crown Heights North and Prospect Heights. Anchored by the Brooklyn Museum, Brooklyn Botanic Garden, Grand Army Plaza, the Brooklyn Public Library's central branch, the Eastern Parkway boulevard, and the 2/3 and 4/5 subway lines.
May 2026 was a genuinely quiet month for Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag count for the month is zero. The story is not a single dramatic move but a broad, sustained retreat across nearly every crime type in the trailing 12 months.
The 12-month picture is consistent across categories: Aggravated Assault is down 14.2% year-over-year (387 vs. 451), Other Larceny is down 17.1% (981 vs. 1,183), Motor Vehicle Theft is down 24.0% (95 vs. 125), and Burglary is down 18.4% (129 vs. 158). Arson, though small in absolute terms, is down 50.0% over the same window (5 vs. 10). No category moved against that grain — every tracked bucket ran below its prior-year pace.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
977 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 981.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
1,013 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 above Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 981.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
927 incidents over the past 12 months — 54 below Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 981.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.