Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers Crown Heights North and Prospect Heights. Anchored by the Brooklyn Museum, Brooklyn Botanic Garden, Grand Army Plaza, the Brooklyn Public Library's central branch, the Eastern Parkway boulevard, and the 2/3 and 4/5 subway lines.
Four categories moved in Brooklyn CD8 this August, three one-month below-trend signals and one sustained structural shift, all pointing in the same direction. The shape of the month is broad and downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Burglary is the strongest single signal, at 112 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 149 in the prior year, down 24.8%. Robbery and vandalism also ran below trend this month, with robbery down 23.6% year-over-year (136 vs. 178) and vandalism down 22.9% (327 vs. 424). Aggravated assault rounds out the picture with a sustained structural shift, 374 incidents in the current 12 months versus 478 in the prior period, a 21.8% gap that reflects more than one quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 112 incidents — about 32% below the 166 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 136 incidents — about 27% below the 186 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 327 incidents — about 39% below the 534 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 945, down 25% from 1,262 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
113 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 112.
Open page →Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
113 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 112.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
115 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 112.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.