Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD8 covers Crown Heights North and Prospect Heights. Anchored by the Brooklyn Museum, Brooklyn Botanic Garden, Grand Army Plaza, the Brooklyn Public Library's central branch, the Eastern Parkway boulevard, and the 2/3 and 4/5 subway lines.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag count for the month is zero. The dominant picture across the trailing 12 months is a broad, modest rise in most crime buckets, with property and violent categories generally running above their prior-year levels.
Aggravated assault is the sharpest mover in the 12-month window, up 16.2% year-over-year — 488 incidents against 420 in the prior period. Robbery and other larceny are also above their prior-year baselines, at 7.7% and 7.8% respectively, with other larceny carrying the highest raw volume at 1,203 incidents. On the other side, arson is down 58.3% over the same stretch (5 incidents vs. 12), and vandalism is down 5.3% — the two categories running measurably below their prior-year levels.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
1,204 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 1,203.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
1,180 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 1,203.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
1,157 incidents over the past 12 months — 46 below Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's 1,203.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights has spiked aggravated assault historically (8 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 8 | 100% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.