Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 is Bushwick. Anchored by the Knickerbocker Avenue and Wyckoff Avenue commercial strips, Maria Hernandez Park, the Bushwick Inlet on the Newtown Creek border, and the L and M trains along Myrtle and Wyckoff avenues.
Four categories moved in Bushwick this May — two registered as one-month below-trend drops, two as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Burglary and Vandalism both ran below trend this month; burglary's trailing 12-month total sits at 154, down 7.2% against the prior year's 166. Motor Vehicle Theft is the structural story: down 29.3% over the trailing 12 months (130 vs. 184), a sustained shift that points to a longer realignment rather than a single quiet month. Vandalism shows the same pattern at the 12-month level — 440 incidents against 601 the prior year, a 26.8% reduction — and everything else across the tracked categories came in within normal range.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 154 incidents — about 43% below the 270 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 440 incidents — about 37% below the 694 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 440, down 27% from 601 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 29% from 184 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood
160 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 154.
Open page →Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City
161 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 154.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
163 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 154.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.