Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 is Bushwick. Anchored by the Knickerbocker Avenue and Wyckoff Avenue commercial strips, Maria Hernandez Park, the Bushwick Inlet on the Newtown Creek border, and the L and M trains along Myrtle and Wyckoff avenues.
March 2026 was a quiet month in Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick. One category registered a signal: burglary ran below its trend baseline. Every other tracked category — robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, vandalism — came in within its normal range.
The burglary signal fits a longer pattern. The trailing 12-month total stands at 172 incidents, down from 188 the prior year — a 12-month decline of 8.5% against a baseline mean of 272.43. Motor vehicle theft and vandalism are also running well below prior-year levels at -17.7% and -13.6% respectively, reinforcing a broader downward drift in property crime. Other larceny, at 1,579 incidents and up 14.4% year over year, remains the one category moving in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 172 incidents — about 37% below the 272 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
172 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 172.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
170 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 172.
Open page →Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
164 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 172.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick has spiked aggravated assault historically (9 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 0% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 9 | 0% |
| Robbery | 8 | 0% |
| Sexual assault | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 5 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.