Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD4 is Bushwick. Anchored by the Knickerbocker Avenue and Wyckoff Avenue commercial strips, Maria Hernandez Park, the Bushwick Inlet on the Newtown Creek border, and the L and M trains along Myrtle and Wyckoff avenues.
Four categories moved in Bushwick CD4 this August. Two registered single-month below-trend signals, vandalism and burglary, and two registered as structural sustained shifts, motor vehicle theft among them. The overall picture is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes in the mix.
Vandalism is the strongest signal: 424 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 583 in the prior year, down 27.3%. Burglary held flat at 156 incidents year-over-year, but this month ran below its usual pace. Motor vehicle theft is down 45.9% against the prior 12 months, 106 incidents versus 196, a sustained structural decrease rather than a one-month dip. Sexual assault and robbery also declined year-over-year, 18.2% and 16.5% respectively, and remained within normal range this month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 424 incidents — about 39% below the 691 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 156 incidents — about 41% below the 266 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 106, down 46% from 196 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 424, down 27% from 583 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel
442 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 424.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
403 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 below Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 424.
Open page →Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
389 incidents over the past 12 months — 35 below Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick's 424.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.