Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Jamaica, Hollis, St. Albans, Springfield Gardens, South Jamaica, Baisley Park, Rochdale Village, and Jamaica Center. Anchored by the AirTrain JFK and the Jamaica LIRR / E/J/Z subway hub, the Jamaica Avenue and Hillside Avenue commercial corridors, York College, and the Van Wyck Expressway.
Two categories moved in Queens CD12, Jamaica / Hollis in July 2026, both running below trend. The signal mix is narrow: two drops, no spikes, no sustained structural shifts. The month is quiet in terms of breadth, but the two categories that did move are meaningful ones.
Vandalism is the stronger of the two signals, with 1,119 incidents in the current 12-month window against 1,356 in the prior year, down 17.5%. Arson is also below trend, 16 incidents against 23 in the prior 12 months, a 30.4% year-over-year reduction. Every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and homicide, fell within its expected range for the period.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 1,119 incidents — about 32% below the 1635 average from prior years.
Arson
The past 12 months saw 16 incidents — about 46% below the 30 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
1,039 incidents over the past 12 months — 80 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 1,119.
Open page →Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
1,033 incidents over the past 12 months — 86 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 1,119.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
818 incidents over the past 12 months — 301 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 1,119.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.