Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Jamaica, Hollis, St. Albans, Springfield Gardens, South Jamaica, Baisley Park, Rochdale Village, and Jamaica Center. Anchored by the AirTrain JFK and the Jamaica LIRR / E/J/Z subway hub, the Jamaica Avenue and Hillside Avenue commercial corridors, York College, and the Van Wyck Expressway.
March 2026 brought two below-trend signals in Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis — both in the property-damage categories. The month's shape is narrow: arson and vandalism each ran below their multi-year baselines, and every other tracked category fell within the normal range.
Arson is the more structurally notable of the two. The trailing 12-month total stands at 14 incidents, down 46.2% against the prior 12 months (26) and well below the multi-year baseline of roughly 30 per year. Vandalism followed the same direction — 1,264 incidents in the current 12-month window against 1,406 in the year prior, a 10.1% decline. Robbery and burglary also posted 12-month declines of 13.4% and 10.4% respectively, though neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. Motor vehicle theft is the one category running above prior-year pace, up 6.3% to 424 incidents.
Notable signals 2
Arson
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 53% below the 30 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 1,264 incidents — about 23% below the 1649 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month arson volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable arson levels.”
Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
14 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 14.
Open page →Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood
15 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 14.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
11 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 14.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.