Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD12 covers Jamaica, Hollis, St. Albans, Springfield Gardens, South Jamaica, Baisley Park, Rochdale Village, and Jamaica Center. Anchored by the AirTrain JFK and the Jamaica LIRR / E/J/Z subway hub, the Jamaica Avenue and Hillside Avenue commercial corridors, York College, and the Van Wyck Expressway.
Six tracked signals shaped August 2026 in Queens CD12, Jamaica / Hollis, split evenly between single-month below-trend moves and sustained multi-month structural shifts. The structural pattern is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes and no rare-event clusters anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism is the strongest signal this month: 1,001 incidents in the current 12 months against 1,353 in the prior year, a 26.0% reduction. Arson and robbery also ran below trend in August, with robbery down 19.6% across the trailing 12 months, 414 incidents against 515. The three sustained-shift signals point to a longer-running compression that predates a single month, reinforcing that the decline in Jamaica / Hollis is structural rather than a one-month fluctuation.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 1,001 incidents — about 39% below the 1631 average from prior years.
Arson
The past 12 months saw 14 incidents — about 53% below the 30 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 414 incidents — about 24% below the 546 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,001, down 26% from 1,353 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 467, down 29% from 657 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 321, down 27% from 437 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
948 incidents over the past 12 months — 53 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 1,001.
Open page →Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
921 incidents over the past 12 months — 80 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 1,001.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
733 incidents over the past 12 months — 268 below Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis's 1,001.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.