Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers East New York, Cypress Hills, City Line, New Lots, Highland Park, and Starrett City (Spring Creek Towers). Anchored by Highland Park on the Queens border, the Atlantic and Pitkin Avenue commercial corridors, the Broadway Junction subway hub, and the Belt Parkway along Jamaica Bay.
Seven categories moved in Brooklyn CD5 (East New York / Starrett City) in August 2026, and the shape is broadly downward. Three categories registered one-month below-trend signals, robbery, vandalism, and burglary, while four others showed sustained structural shifts, meaning the declines run across the full trailing 12 months, not just a single quiet period.
Robbery is the strongest signal: 381 incidents in the current 12-month window against 538 in the prior year, a 29.2% reduction. Vandalism and burglary follow the same direction, down 27.9% and 28.2% respectively on a 12-month basis. Every other tracked category also finished the year-over-year comparison below its prior period, with arson showing the steepest relative drop at 57.1% (12 incidents vs. 28).
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 381 incidents — about 42% below the 653 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 921 incidents — about 37% below the 1462 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 176 incidents — about 54% below the 385 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,266, down 26% from 3,047 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 921, down 28% from 1,278 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 381, down 29% from 538 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 176, down 28% from 245 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
384 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City's 381.
Open page →Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
386 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City's 381.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
388 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City's 381.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.