Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers East New York, Cypress Hills, City Line, New Lots, Highland Park, and Starrett City (Spring Creek Towers). Anchored by Highland Park on the Queens border, the Atlantic and Pitkin Avenue commercial corridors, the Broadway Junction subway hub, and the Belt Parkway along Jamaica Bay.
Two categories moved in Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City this month, both running below trend. The shape is narrow but consistent: robbery and burglary each registered below-trend signals against an otherwise stable backdrop across the remaining eight tracked categories.
Robbery's 12-month total stands at 506, down 10.9% against the prior year's 568 and below its multi-year baseline. Burglary followed the same direction — 222 incidents over the current 12 months versus 273 in the year before, a 18.7% reduction. Everything else, including aggravated assault, theft from vehicle, and vandalism, came in within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 506 incidents — about 23% below the 661 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 222 incidents — about 44% below the 394 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis
504 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City's 506.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
498 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City's 506.
Open page →Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
515 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City's 506.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.