Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose Crime Rate Trends — New York
The Bronx's southernmost community district covers Mott Haven, Melrose, and Port Morris. Anchored by the Third Avenue Bridge and Willis Avenue Bridge approaches, the Bruckner Expressway industrial corridor, the Hub commercial district at 149th Street, and the 2/4/5/6 subway lines.
Seven categories moved in Bronx CD1, Mott Haven / Melrose this August. Six registered as sustained shifts, structural multi-month changes rather than single-month noise, and one registered as a single below-trend signal. The overall shape is broadly and durably downward across both violent and property crime.
Vandalism is the most distinct single-month signal, with the trailing 12 months at 733 incidents, down 27.9% against the prior year's 1,016. Robbery and sexual assault both show sustained downward shifts: robbery at 458 incidents against 635 the prior 12 months, a 27.9% reduction; sexual assault at 195 vs. 287, down 32.1%. The remaining sustained shifts, including aggravated assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft, all ran meaningfully below the prior year as well, leaving virtually no category outside the downward pattern.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 733 incidents — about 36% below the 1148 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,853, down 28% from 2,559 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 733, down 28% from 1,016 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 458, down 28% from 635 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 168, down 39% from 273 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
708 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 733.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
697 incidents over the past 12 months — 36 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 733.
Open page →Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
676 incidents over the past 12 months — 57 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 733.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.