Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose Crime Rate Trends — New York
The Bronx's southernmost community district covers Mott Haven, Melrose, and Port Morris. Anchored by the Third Avenue Bridge and Willis Avenue Bridge approaches, the Bruckner Expressway industrial corridor, the Hub commercial district at 149th Street, and the 2/4/5/6 subway lines.
Three categories moved in Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose this month: one below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts, both pointing downward. The pattern is narrow but consistent — no spikes, no rare events, and the dominant direction across all three signals is decline.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the current 12-month total at 760 against a prior-year count of 1,013 — down 25.0%. Behind it, two structural shifts: Sexual Assault is down 40.3% over the trailing 12 months (182 vs. 305), and Motor Vehicle Theft is down 29.3% (191 vs. 270). Every other tracked category was within range this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 760 incidents — about 34% below the 1152 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 182, down 40% from 305 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 191, down 29% from 270 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
692 incidents over the past 12 months — 68 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 760.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
688 incidents over the past 12 months — 72 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 760.
Open page →Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
686 incidents over the past 12 months — 74 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 760.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.