Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose Crime Rate Trends — New York
The Bronx's southernmost community district covers Mott Haven, Melrose, and Port Morris. Anchored by the Third Avenue Bridge and Willis Avenue Bridge approaches, the Bruckner Expressway industrial corridor, the Hub commercial district at 149th Street, and the 2/4/5/6 subway lines.
March 2026 produced no tracked signals in Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose. No category crossed an anomaly threshold this month, making this the quietest possible read from the tracking system.
The 12-month totals still show meaningful directional movement in several categories: arson is down 55.6% against the prior year (8 incidents vs. 18), homicide is down 35.7% (9 vs. 14), and sexual assault is down 18.0% (241 vs. 294). On the other side, burglary is up 7.0% (399 vs. 373) and robbery is up 5.3% (635 vs. 603) over the same window — neither crossed a signal threshold this month, but both are worth watching as the trailing trend continues to build.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
2,442 incidents over the past 12 months — 31 below Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 2,473.
Open page →Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
2,514 incidents over the past 12 months — 41 above Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 2,473.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
2,635 incidents over the past 12 months — 162 above Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose's 2,473.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.