Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Bayside, Little Neck, Auburndale, Douglaston, Hollis Hills, and Oakland Gardens. Anchored by the Cross Island Parkway along the Little Neck Bay shoreline, the Bell Boulevard and Northern Boulevard commercial corridors, Alley Pond Park, and the Long Island Rail Road's Port Washington Branch.
Four signals surfaced in Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck this month: one drop, one spike, and two sustained shifts. The shape is split — vandalism ran below trend in a single-month drop, while motor vehicle theft produced both a fresh spike and a multi-month structural shift upward. That combination, a simultaneous one-month signal and a longer-term structural move in the same category, is the defining pattern of this briefing.
Motor vehicle theft is the category to watch. The trailing 12-month total stands at 322 incidents, up 31.4% against the prior 12 months (245), and the sustained-shift signal indicates this isn't a single noisy month — the elevated rate has persisted long enough to redefine the baseline. Vandalism moved the other direction: 218 incidents over the trailing 12 months versus 297 the year before, a 26.6% decline. The remaining tracked categories — robbery, burglary, theft from vehicle — were within their normal ranges this month.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 322 incidents — about 171% above the 119 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 218 incidents — about 31% below the 315 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 218, down 27% from 297 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 322, up 31% from 245 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
314 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck's 322.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
310 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck's 322.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
337 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 above Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck's 322.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.