Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Bayside, Little Neck, Auburndale, Douglaston, Hollis Hills, and Oakland Gardens. Anchored by the Cross Island Parkway along the Little Neck Bay shoreline, the Bell Boulevard and Northern Boulevard commercial corridors, Alley Pond Park, and the Long Island Rail Road's Port Washington Branch.
Four categories moved in Queens CD11 (Bayside / Little Neck) this August briefing: one below-trend single-month signal and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes and no rare events anywhere in the mix.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with the trailing 12-month total at 173 incidents against 239 in the prior year, down 27.6%. The sustained shifts tell a longer story: burglary is down 41.9% over 12 months (193 vs. 332), and theft from vehicle is down 52.5% (77 vs. 162). Every other tracked category also ran below its prior-year level, and nothing outside these four crossed the anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 173 incidents — about 44% below the 312 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 193, down 42% from 332 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 77, down 53% from 162 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 173, down 28% from 239 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
200 incidents over the past 12 months — 27 above Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck's 173.
Open page →Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
206 incidents over the past 12 months — 33 above Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck's 173.
Open page →Brooklyn CD10 — Bay Ridge / Dyker Heights
209 incidents over the past 12 months — 36 above Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck's 173.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD11 — Bayside / Little Neck, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.