Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Murray Hill, Kips Bay, Gramercy, Stuyvesant Town–Peter Cooper Village, Tudor City, and Turtle Bay. Anchored by the United Nations headquarters, Bellevue Hospital, the NYU Langone medical campus, and the Lexington Avenue subway corridor.
Six categories moved in Manhattan CD6 this month, none upward. Two registered as single-month below-trend signals, other larceny and vandalism, while four others are showing multi-month sustained shifts, structural changes across the trailing 12 months rather than a single quiet reading. The overall shape is a broad, category-wide decline across both property and violent crime.
Other larceny is the strongest single signal: 2,067 incidents over the current 12 months against 2,766 in the prior year, down 25.3%. Vandalism fell 21.6% on the same basis, 272 vs. 347. Robbery is among the four sustained shifts, down 28.1% year-over-year, 105 incidents vs. 146, a move that spans multiple months rather than one anomalous period. Everything else tracked this month was within normal range.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 2,067 incidents — about 31% below the 3009 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 272 incidents — about 42% below the 468 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,067, down 25% from 2,766 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 139, down 33% from 208 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 173, down 27% from 238 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 105, down 28% from 146 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
2,075 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 2,067.
Open page →Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands
2,095 incidents over the past 12 months — 28 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 2,067.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
2,097 incidents over the past 12 months — 30 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 2,067.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.