Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Murray Hill, Kips Bay, Gramercy, Stuyvesant Town–Peter Cooper Village, Tudor City, and Turtle Bay. Anchored by the United Nations headquarters, Bellevue Hospital, the NYU Langone medical campus, and the Lexington Avenue subway corridor.
Two categories ran below trend in Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay this month: Other Larceny and Vandalism. Both registered as one-month below-trend signals against an otherwise stable backdrop — no spikes, no rare events, no sustained structural shifts across the eight tracked categories.
Other Larceny is the larger of the two signals. The trailing 12-month total sits at 2,442 incidents, down 11.8% against the prior 12 months' 2,769. Vandalism followed the same direction, down 22.7% year-over-year — 297 incidents in the current 12-month window vs. 384 in the prior period. Every other tracked category, including Robbery, Aggravated Assault, and Burglary, came in within its normal range.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 2,442 incidents — about 19% below the 3021 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 297 incidents — about 37% below the 473 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
2,473 incidents over the past 12 months — 31 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 2,442.
Open page →Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
2,514 incidents over the past 12 months — 72 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 2,442.
Open page →Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands
2,274 incidents over the past 12 months — 168 below Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 2,442.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.