Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD6 covers Murray Hill, Kips Bay, Gramercy, Stuyvesant Town–Peter Cooper Village, Tudor City, and Turtle Bay. Anchored by the United Nations headquarters, Bellevue Hospital, the NYU Langone medical campus, and the Lexington Avenue subway corridor.
Seven categories moved in Manhattan CD6 this August briefing, and the shape is broadly downward. Two registered as single-month below-trend signals, other larceny and vandalism, while five categories show sustained, multi-month structural shifts. The direction across all seven is the same: lower.
Other larceny is the strongest signal this month, with 1,839 incidents in the current 12 months against 2,730 in the prior year, a drop of 32.6%. Vandalism fell 29.8% on the same basis, 245 incidents vs. 349. Robbery is the clearest sustained story: down 39.2% over 12 months, 90 incidents against 148, a move that goes beyond a single quiet month and reflects a structural shift across the trailing period.
Notable signals 2
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 1,839 incidents — about 39% below the 3006 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 245 incidents — about 48% below the 467 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,839, down 33% from 2,730 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 115, down 46% from 211 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 245, down 30% from 349 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 154, down 33% from 229 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
1,853 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 1,839.
Open page →Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands
1,853 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 1,839.
Open page →Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
1,817 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 below Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay's 1,839.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.