Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD18 covers Canarsie, Flatlands, Mill Basin, Bergen Beach, Marine Park, Georgetown, and Paerdegat Basin. Anchored by Marine Park itself — Brooklyn's largest park — Canarsie Pier on Jamaica Bay, the Belt Parkway, the L train terminus at Canarsie–Rockaway Parkway, and the Kings Plaza shopping center.
July 2026 was a narrow month for Canarsie / Flatlands. Only one category registered a notable signal: vandalism running below trend. Across the rest of the tracked categories, volume moved within normal range, making this a structurally quiet briefing.
Vandalism's 12-month total stands at 574 incidents, down 16.4% against the prior year's 687. That decline is the sharpest directional move in the neighborhood this period. Elsewhere, the longer-term picture is mixed: aggravated assault is up 12.5% over the trailing 12 months (413 vs. 367), theft from vehicle is down 17.6% (197 vs. 239), and arson has fallen to just 3 incidents from 11 in the prior year. Those shifts are gradual trends in the annual data, not single-month anomalies, and none crossed the threshold for a signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 574 incidents — about 25% below the 767 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
576 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 574.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
571 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 574.
Open page →Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
569 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 574.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.