Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD18 covers Canarsie, Flatlands, Mill Basin, Bergen Beach, Marine Park, Georgetown, and Paerdegat Basin. Anchored by Marine Park itself — Brooklyn's largest park — Canarsie Pier on Jamaica Bay, the Belt Parkway, the L train terminus at Canarsie–Rockaway Parkway, and the Kings Plaza shopping center.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands this month: one one-month below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is consistently downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Vandalism registered the sharpest single-month signal — the trailing 12-month total of 533 incidents is well below the multi-year baseline. Theft from vehicle and Other Larceny are both sustained structural shifts moving in the same direction: theft from vehicle is down 31.9% year-over-year (169 incidents vs. 248), and other larceny is down 26.2% (1,867 vs. 2,530). All other tracked categories fell within normal range this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 533 incidents — about 31% below the 770 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,867, down 26% from 2,530 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 169, down 32% from 248 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
532 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 533.
Open page →Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
531 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 533.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
528 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 533.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.