Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD18 covers Canarsie, Flatlands, Mill Basin, Bergen Beach, Marine Park, Georgetown, and Paerdegat Basin. Anchored by Marine Park itself — Brooklyn's largest park — Canarsie Pier on Jamaica Bay, the Belt Parkway, the L train terminus at Canarsie–Rockaway Parkway, and the Kings Plaza shopping center.
March 2026 produced a single signal in Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands: a sustained structural shift in theft from vehicle, running well below the prior-year baseline. One category moved; the rest of the tracked crime categories were within range.
Theft from vehicle is down 31.8% over the trailing 12 months — 193 incidents against 283 in the year before — and the sustained-shift designation marks this as a multi-month structural change, not a one-month dip. Aggravated assault moved in the opposite direction over the same window, up 17.6% year-over-year (427 vs. 363), though it did not cross the anomaly threshold this month. Every other category, from robbery to vandalism to motor vehicle theft, held close to flat.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 193, down 32% from 283 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
191 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 193.
Open page →Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
187 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 193.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
184 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands's 193.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.