Manhattan CD5 — Midtown Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 is Midtown's commercial core — Times Square, Bryant Park, the Diamond District, Rockefeller Center, the Garment District, NoMad, and Flatiron. Anchored by Grand Central Terminal, Penn Station's north edge, and the Times Square subway hub.
March 2026 produced just two signals in Manhattan CD5 — Midtown: one below-trend signal and one zero-event signal, against a backdrop of broad year-over-year declines across most tracked categories. The overall shape is a neighborhood running below its own recent history, not a month with active spikes.
Vandalism is the clearest mover — the current 12-month total is 837 incidents against a prior-year count of 941, down 11.1% year-over-year. Other larceny and robbery also ran lower over the trailing 12 months, down 11.4% and 10.3% respectively. Burglary and aggravated assault are the two categories moving the other direction, up 8.2% and 5.6%, but neither generated a signal this month — everything outside the two tracked signals landed within range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 837 incidents — about 15% below the 986 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD5 — Midtown compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
834 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Manhattan CD5 — Midtown's 837.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
859 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 above Manhattan CD5 — Midtown's 837.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
811 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Manhattan CD5 — Midtown's 837.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD5 — Midtown, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.