Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca Crime Rate Trends — New York
Manhattan's southernmost community district covers Wall Street and the Financial District, Battery Park City along the Hudson, the World Trade Center site, and Tribeca's cast-iron loft blocks. Anchored by the Fulton Center and South Ferry transit hubs and the South Street Seaport waterfront.
July 2026 produced a single notable signal in this neighborhood: sexual assault running below its multi-year trend. One category moved, one direction, and everything else tracked within range.
Sexual assault totaled 68 incidents over the current 12 months, down 29.9% against the prior 12 months (97). Robbery and other larceny are also down on the trailing year, 19.9% and 19.2% respectively, and vandalism fell 22.4% (361 vs 465), but none of those crossed the threshold for a tracked signal this month. Burglary is the one category moving in the opposite direction, up 14.7% over 12 months (133 vs 116), worth watching but not yet a fresh signal in this briefing.
Notable signals 1
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 68 incidents — about 36% below the 106 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
69 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 68.
Open page →Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 68.
Open page →Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
64 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 68.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.