Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca Crime Rate Trends — New York
Manhattan's southernmost community district covers Wall Street and the Financial District, Battery Park City along the Hudson, the World Trade Center site, and Tribeca's cast-iron loft blocks. Anchored by the Fulton Center and South Ferry transit hubs and the South Street Seaport waterfront.
Seven signals moved in Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca this May, a mix of 2 one-month below-trend drops and 5 sustained structural shifts. The dominant pattern is broadly downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes in the mix.
Sexual assault and vandalism registered the sharpest single-month drops; robbery is down 34.0% over the trailing 12 months (95 incidents vs. 144 the prior year), a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Motor vehicle theft is down 50.0% year-over-year and other larceny is down 28.8% — 2,348 incidents against 3,297 — reinforcing that the pullback here runs across multiple categories and extends well beyond a quiet month.
Notable signals 2
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 61 incidents — about 43% below the 106 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 331 incidents — about 27% below the 453 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,348, down 29% from 3,297 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 331, down 31% from 479 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 61, down 47% from 114 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 95, down 34% from 144 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 61.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 61.
Open page →Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay
65 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 61.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.