Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca Crime Rate Trends — New York
Manhattan's southernmost community district covers Wall Street and the Financial District, Battery Park City along the Hudson, the World Trade Center site, and Tribeca's cast-iron loft blocks. Anchored by the Fulton Center and South Ferry transit hubs and the South Street Seaport waterfront.
March 2026 produced two signals in Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca, both pointing the same direction: aggravated assault. One is a single-month spike; the other is a sustained structural shift indicating the elevated rate has persisted across multiple months, not just this one. Every other tracked category was within normal range.
Aggravated assault stands at 273 incidents over the current 12 months, up 26.4% against the prior 12-month total of 216 — and meaningfully above the multi-year baseline. The sustained-shift signal means this isn't a one-month anomaly: the category has been running above its longer-term baseline for a stretch of months. Vandalism (down 18.9%, 404 vs. 498), other larceny (down 16.5%, 2,845 vs. 3,408), and motor vehicle theft (down 40.0%, 24 vs. 40) all ran well below prior-year levels, leaving aggravated assault as the single category pulling against an otherwise broadly declining backdrop.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 273 incidents — about 59% above the 172 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 273, up 26% from 216 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
271 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 273.
Open page →Queens CD2 — Sunnyside / Woodside
283 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 273.
Open page →Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park
290 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 273.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.