Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca Crime Rate Trends — New York
Manhattan's southernmost community district covers Wall Street and the Financial District, Battery Park City along the Hudson, the World Trade Center site, and Tribeca's cast-iron loft blocks. Anchored by the Fulton Center and South Ferry transit hubs and the South Street Seaport waterfront.
Six categories moved in Manhattan CD1 this August, all in the same direction. Two registered single-month below-trend signals, sexual assault and vandalism, while four others, including robbery, show multi-month sustained structural shifts. The pattern is consistent: across both violent and property crime, volumes are running meaningfully below where they were a year ago.
Sexual assault is the sharpest single-month signal, down to 59 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 98 in the prior year, a 39.8% reduction. Vandalism tells a similar story at the 12-month level, 311 incidents vs 479 a year ago, down 35.1%. Robbery's move is structural rather than one-month noise: 100 incidents over the current 12 months compared to 150 in the prior period, a 33.3% decline sustained across multiple months. Other larceny and aggravated assault are also down year-over-year, and burglary is the one category running above the prior year, up 7.7% to 126 incidents, the only counter-trend signal in an otherwise broadly lower month.
Notable signals 2
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 59 incidents — about 44% below the 106 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 311 incidents — about 31% below the 454 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,327, down 26% from 3,155 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 311, down 35% from 479 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 100, down 33% from 150 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 59, down 40% from 98 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
60 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 59.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
61 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 59.
Open page →Queens CD6 — Forest Hills / Rego Park
56 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca's 59.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.