Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 takes in Greenwich Village, the West Village, SoHo, NoHo, Hudson Square, and Little Italy. Anchored by Washington Square Park, the cast-iron historic district along Broadway and Greene Street, and the West 4th Street and Spring Street subway stops.
July 2026 brought two sustained-shift signals in Manhattan CD2, both pointing downward. There were no spikes, no rare-event clusters, and no streak breaks. The structural pattern across the neighborhood is a multi-year contraction in two of its highest-volume categories.
Robbery has fallen 34.4% over the trailing 12 months, 164 incidents against 250 in the prior year. Other Larceny, the neighborhood's largest category by volume, is down 26.8% on the same comparison, 4,663 incidents against 6,372. Both moves are classified as sustained shifts, meaning the gap has persisted across multiple months rather than appearing as a single quiet period. Every other tracked category remained within its normal range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 4,663, down 27% from 6,372 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 164, down 34% from 250 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
3,624 incidents over the past 12 months — 1039 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 4,663.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
3,575 incidents over the past 12 months — 1088 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 4,663.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
3,537 incidents over the past 12 months — 1126 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 4,663.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.