Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 takes in Greenwich Village, the West Village, SoHo, NoHo, Hudson Square, and Little Italy. Anchored by Washington Square Park, the cast-iron historic district along Broadway and Greene Street, and the West 4th Street and Spring Street subway stops.
March 2026 produced no tracked signals in Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo. No category crossed the threshold for a spike, drop, sustained shift, rare event, or streak break this month. The neighborhood was flat against its recent baseline across all ten tracked crime types.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Motor vehicle theft is up 64.7% against the prior year — 56 incidents vs. 34 — and theft from vehicle is up 19.6% (116 vs. 97). On the other side, robbery is down 22.7% (201 vs. 260), sexual assault is down 18.4% (71 vs. 87), and other larceny is down 14.8%, from 6,462 to 5,507. None of those year-over-year shifts crossed the anomaly threshold this month, meaning the current pace is consistent with recent months — but the motor vehicle theft trend is the one number that stands apart from an otherwise broadly lower crime picture.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD4 — Chelsea / Hell's Kitchen
4,052 incidents over the past 12 months — 1455 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 5,507.
Open page →Manhattan CD7 — Upper West Side
3,992 incidents over the past 12 months — 1515 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 5,507.
Open page →Manhattan CD8 — Upper East Side
3,945 incidents over the past 12 months — 1562 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 5,507.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.