Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 takes in Greenwich Village, the West Village, SoHo, NoHo, Hudson Square, and Little Italy. Anchored by Washington Square Park, the cast-iron historic district along Broadway and Greene Street, and the West 4th Street and Spring Street subway stops.
Four signals surfaced in Manhattan CD2 this August, one below-trend single-month move and three sustained shifts, all pointing in the same direction. The structural pattern across this neighborhood is broadly downward, concentrated in property and violent crime categories that have been running lower for multiple consecutive months, not just a quiet August.
Robbery is the strongest signal, down 37.4% over the trailing 12 months, 147 incidents against 235 the prior year, with both a single-month drop and a sustained multi-year shift registered. Other larceny is also in sustained decline, 4,128 incidents versus 6,252 the year before, a reduction of 34.0%. Vandalism, aggravated assault, burglary, and sexual assault all show double-digit year-over-year reductions as well. The two categories running counter to that pattern are theft from vehicle, up 20.9%, and motor vehicle theft, up 39.5%, though neither registered as an acute signal this month.
Notable signals 1
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 147 incidents — about 47% below the 277 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 4,128, down 34% from 6,252 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 482, down 27% from 656 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 147, down 37% from 235 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
145 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 147.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
156 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 above Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 147.
Open page →Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
136 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo's 147.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.