Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers South Crown Heights, Prospect Lefferts Gardens, and Wingate. Anchored by Prospect Park's southeast edge, the Brooklyn Botanic Garden, the SUNY Downstate Medical Center campus, Kings County Hospital, and the 2/5 train along Nostrand Avenue.
May 2026 produced just two signals in Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens, both concentrated in vandalism. One is a single-month below-trend drop; the other is a sustained structural shift, meaning the decline has persisted long enough to register as a multi-year pattern, not a one-month anomaly. Every other tracked category stayed within its normal range.
Vandalism is the story here. The trailing 12-month total stands at 306 incidents, down 25.9% against the prior 12 months (413) and well below a multi-year baseline mean of 560.55. Burglary and aggravated assault both moved in the opposite direction — up 12.7% and 6.3% respectively over the same window — but neither triggered a signal this month, leaving vandalism's sustained decline as the one structural move worth tracking into June.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 306 incidents — about 45% below the 561 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 306, down 26% from 413 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay
303 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens's 306.
Open page →Staten Island CD3 — South Shore
311 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens's 306.
Open page →Manhattan CD9 — Morningside Heights / Hamilton Heights
297 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens's 306.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.