Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD9 covers South Crown Heights, Prospect Lefferts Gardens, and Wingate. Anchored by Prospect Park's southeast edge, the Brooklyn Botanic Garden, the SUNY Downstate Medical Center campus, Kings County Hospital, and the 2/5 train along Nostrand Avenue.
March 2026 brought three distinct signals in Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens: a one-month aggravated assault spike, a vandalism drop, and a sustained multi-month aggravated assault shift. The two assault signals together point to something structural, not a one-month blip — the sustained-shift signal confirms the pattern extends across the trailing 12 months, not just this briefing.
Aggravated assault reached 407 incidents in the current 12-month window, up 36.1% against the prior 12 months (299) and well above the multi-year baseline of 311.66. Robbery is also running higher — 143 incidents vs. 107 the year before, a 33.6% increase — though it did not surface in the top three signals this month. Vandalism moved the other direction, down 7.3% year over year (382 vs. 412), the one category in the data pulling clearly below its prior-year level.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 407 incidents — about 31% above the 312 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 382 incidents — about 32% below the 564 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 407, up 36% from 299 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Brooklyn CD4 — Bushwick
406 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens's 407.
Open page →Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint
421 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 above Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens's 407.
Open page →Queens CD7 — Flushing / Whitestone
388 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens's 407.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.