Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Sunset Park and Windsor Terrace. Anchored by Sunset Park itself with its Manhattan-skyline views, Brooklyn Army Terminal, Industry City, the Gowanus Expressway, Green-Wood Cemetery on the eastern edge, and the N/D/R lines along Fourth Avenue.
Ten signals surfaced in Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park this month, split evenly between one-month below-trend drops and multi-month sustained shifts. Five categories are tracking lower on a single-month basis; five more show structural declines embedded in the trailing 12-month window. The overall shape is a broad, category-wide pullback across both violent and property crime.
Robbery leads the drop signals: 95 incidents in the current 12 months against 135 in the prior year, down 29.6%. Burglary and vandalism are moving in the same direction — burglary off 31.7% year-over-year (86 vs. 126) and vandalism down 28.4% (249 vs. 348). Other larceny, the highest-volume category tracked here, is down 32.8% against the prior 12 months. Every other tracked category also ran below its prior-year level this month; nothing moved in the opposite direction.
Notable signals 5
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 95 incidents — about 44% below the 170 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 249 incidents — about 48% below the 476 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 86 incidents — about 49% below the 170 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 69 incidents — about 64% below the 190 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 740 incidents — about 47% below the 1409 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 740, down 33% from 1,101 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 249, down 28% from 348 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 86, down 32% from 126 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 95, down 30% from 135 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
95 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 95.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
85 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 95.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 above Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 95.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.