Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Sunset Park and Windsor Terrace. Anchored by Sunset Park itself with its Manhattan-skyline views, Brooklyn Army Terminal, Industry City, the Gowanus Expressway, Green-Wood Cemetery on the eastern edge, and the N/D/R lines along Fourth Avenue.
Three categories ran below trend in Brooklyn CD7, Sunset Park this July, all of them on the property and violent crime side: robbery, vandalism, and burglary. No spikes, no rare events, no sustained-shift signals. The month's shape is a modest, uniform pullback across distinct crime types rather than movement concentrated in one area.
Robbery is the strongest of the three signals, with 107 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 113 in the prior year, a drop of 5.3%. Burglary shows the sharpest year-over-year move in the dataset, down 27.6% (92 incidents vs. 127). Vandalism fell 16.0% over the same window, 278 incidents against 331. Everything else tracked within normal range, including other larceny, which is also down 21.4% year-over-year at 833 incidents, though that category did not register a below-trend signal this month.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 107 incidents — about 37% below the 169 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 278 incidents — about 41% below the 472 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 92 incidents — about 46% below the 169 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
105 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 107.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
110 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 107.
Open page →Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay
117 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 107.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.