Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Sunset Park and Windsor Terrace. Anchored by Sunset Park itself with its Manhattan-skyline views, Brooklyn Army Terminal, Industry City, the Gowanus Expressway, Green-Wood Cemetery on the eastern edge, and the N/D/R lines along Fourth Avenue.
Five categories moved in Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park this month: three ran below trend on a one-month basis and two reflect longer-term structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property crime and violent crime — no category moved in the opposite direction, and no spikes or rare events appear in the mix.
Robbery leads the one-month signals: 110 incidents over the current 12-month window against 155 in the prior year, down 29.0%. Burglary and vandalism also ran below trend, with burglary down 31.7% year-over-year (97 vs. 142) and vandalism down 18.7% (300 vs. 369). Theft from vehicle and other larceny account for the two sustained-shift signals — both categories have been running below their prior-year levels long enough to register as structural rather than single-month moves, with other larceny at 920 incidents against 1,107 the prior year.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 110 incidents — about 36% below the 171 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 300 incidents — about 37% below the 479 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 43% below the 171 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 97, down 32% from 142 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 110, down 29% from 155 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 110.
Open page →Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 110.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 110.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.