Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Sunset Park and Windsor Terrace. Anchored by Sunset Park itself with its Manhattan-skyline views, Brooklyn Army Terminal, Industry City, the Gowanus Expressway, Green-Wood Cemetery on the eastern edge, and the N/D/R lines along Fourth Avenue.
Five categories moved in Brooklyn CD7, Sunset Park this August: three ran below trend for the month and two reflect sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Robbery, vandalism, and burglary are the three strongest below-trend signals this month. Robbery's trailing 12-month count stands at 98, down from 103 the prior year, and the current pace sits well below its multi-year range. The structural story is wider: aggravated assault is down 26.0% year over year (216 vs. 292), other larceny is down 28.1% (748 vs. 1,040), and burglary is down 26.5% (86 vs. 117). Everything else tracked this month was within its normal range.
Notable signals 3
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 98 incidents — about 42% below the 168 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 250 incidents — about 47% below the 470 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 86 incidents — about 49% below the 169 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 748, down 28% from 1,040 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 216, down 26% from 292 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month robbery volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable robbery levels.”
Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
100 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 98.
Open page →Brooklyn CD9 — South Crown Heights / Lefferts Gardens
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 98.
Open page →Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay
103 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park's 98.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD7 — Sunset Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.