Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Kingsbridge Heights, Bedford Park, Norwood, and Fordham North. Anchored by Lehman College, the Jerome Park Reservoir, the New York Botanical Garden's western edge, and the 4 train and Metro-North Botanical Garden station.
Four categories moved in Bronx CD7, Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford this August 2026, and the shape is almost entirely downward. One registered as a single-month below-trend signal, three as sustained structural shifts pointing to multi-year declines. The breadth here matters: this is not one category having a quiet month but a broad, durable pattern across property crime.
Vandalism is the sharpest individual signal, down 28.2% over the trailing 12 months, 521 incidents against 726 in the prior year. Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft are both in sustained-shift territory: theft from vehicle is down 40.3% (173 vs. 290) and motor vehicle theft down 30.8% (218 vs. 315). Everything else in the tracked categories held within its usual range this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 521 incidents — about 35% below the 800 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 521, down 28% from 726 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 173, down 40% from 290 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 218, down 31% from 315 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
523 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 521.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
518 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 521.
Open page →Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands
516 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 521.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.