Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Kingsbridge Heights, Bedford Park, Norwood, and Fordham North. Anchored by Lehman College, the Jerome Park Reservoir, the New York Botanical Garden's western edge, and the 4 train and Metro-North Botanical Garden station.
March 2026 produced a single signal in Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford: an above-trend spike in aggravated assault. Every other tracked category was within normal range, making this a concentrated rather than broad-based month.
Aggravated assault is the one category that moved, and the 12-month total of 921 incidents stands well above the prior 12-month count of 819 — a 12.5% year-over-year increase. That structural rise across two annual windows makes the spike signal more significant than a one-off noisy month. Robbery and sexual assault also show 12-month increases of 12.7% and 13.6% respectively, but neither crossed the anomaly threshold this month. Property crime ran in the opposite direction: burglary is down 14.9%, theft from vehicle down 16.7%, and vandalism down 14.5% against the prior year.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 921 incidents — about 57% above the 586 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
898 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 921.
Open page →Bronx CD12 — Williamsbridge / Baychester
988 incidents over the past 12 months — 67 above Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 921.
Open page →Bronx CD4 — Concourse / Highbridge
1,010 incidents over the past 12 months — 89 above Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 921.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.