Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Kingsbridge Heights, Bedford Park, Norwood, and Fordham North. Anchored by Lehman College, the Jerome Park Reservoir, the New York Botanical Garden's western edge, and the 4 train and Metro-North Botanical Garden station.
July 2026 was a narrow month for Bronx CD7, Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford. Only two categories moved, and both are the same kind of signal: sustained structural shifts, not single-month blips. The direction is uniformly downward, with motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both tracking well below where they were across the prior 12-month window.
Theft from vehicle is down 31.8% year-over-year, 199 incidents in the current 12 months against 292 in the year before. Motor vehicle theft is down 27.1% over the same window, 242 vs 332. These are multi-year structural moves, not noise. Every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, vandalism, and others, came in within its normal range this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 199, down 32% from 292 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 242, down 27% from 332 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
241 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 242.
Open page →Bronx CD8 — Riverdale / Fieldston
248 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 242.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
235 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 242.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.