Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD7 covers Kingsbridge Heights, Bedford Park, Norwood, and Fordham North. Anchored by Lehman College, the Jerome Park Reservoir, the New York Botanical Garden's western edge, and the 4 train and Metro-North Botanical Garden station.
Four categories moved in Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford this month: one one-month drop signal and three sustained structural shifts, all running below trend. The dominant pattern is a broad, multi-month pullback in property crime — not a single quiet month, but categories that have been running below their prior-year baselines across the trailing 12 months.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal, with a current 12-month total of 528 against a prior-year figure of 731 — down 27.8%. Theft from Vehicle and Other Larceny are both registered as sustained shifts: theft from vehicle is down 34.4% (198 vs. 302 over the prior 12 months), and other larceny is down 26.6% (1,487 vs. 2,025). Everything else in the tracked categories — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, motor vehicle theft — is also below its prior-year level, though none crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 528 incidents — about 34% below the 803 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,487, down 27% from 2,025 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 528, down 28% from 731 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 198, down 34% from 302 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
527 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 528.
Open page →Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
531 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 528.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
532 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford's 528.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.