Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City Crime Rate Trends — New York
Queens's northwestern community district covers Astoria, Long Island City, Ditmars Steinway, Old Astoria, Ravenswood, and Hallets Point. Anchored by the Queensboro Bridge approach, the Steinway Street and 30th Avenue commercial corridors, Astoria Park along the East River, the Hunters Point waterfront, and the N/W and 7 trains.
Two sustained structural shifts define July 2026 in Queens CD1, both pointing downward. Aggravated assault and burglary are each running well below where they were a year ago, and no other category produced a signal this month. Everything else was within its normal range.
Aggravated assault is down 28.9% over the trailing 12 months, 393 incidents against 553 in the prior year. Burglary fell 26.2% over the same window, 163 incidents against 221. These are not single-month dips: both categories have shifted structurally across the full 12-month period, which makes them more reliable as trend indicators than a one-month move would be.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 393, down 29% from 553 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 163, down 26% from 221 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
390 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 393.
Open page →Brooklyn CD13 — Coney Island / Brighton Beach
403 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 393.
Open page →Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint
378 incidents over the past 12 months — 15 below Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 393.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.