Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City Crime Rate Trends — New York
Queens's northwestern community district covers Astoria, Long Island City, Ditmars Steinway, Old Astoria, Ravenswood, and Hallets Point. Anchored by the Queensboro Bridge approach, the Steinway Street and 30th Avenue commercial corridors, Astoria Park along the East River, the Hunters Point waterfront, and the N/W and 7 trains.
Three signals surfaced in Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City this month: one below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts, both pointing downward. The sustained shifts are the more consequential story — aggravated assault and sexual assault have moved structurally lower over the trailing 12 months, not just had a quiet month.
Aggravated assault is down 40.0% against the prior 12 months (351 incidents vs. 585), and sexual assault is down 34.4% (137 vs. 209) — both registering as multi-month structural declines, not single-month noise. Vandalism is the one-month below-trend signal, with a current 12-month total of 608 against a baseline of 890.14; every other tracked category also ran below its prior-year pace, with robbery down 19.6%, burglary down 24.1%, and other larceny down 19.5%.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 608 incidents — about 32% below the 890 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 351, down 40% from 585 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 137, down 34% from 209 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights
608 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 608.
Open page →Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem
610 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 608.
Open page →Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
596 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 608.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.