Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City Crime Rate Trends — New York
Queens's northwestern community district covers Astoria, Long Island City, Ditmars Steinway, Old Astoria, Ravenswood, and Hallets Point. Anchored by the Queensboro Bridge approach, the Steinway Street and 30th Avenue commercial corridors, Astoria Park along the East River, the Hunters Point waterfront, and the N/W and 7 trains.
March 2026 was a signal-free month for Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City. No tracked category crossed the anomaly threshold, and the flag mix is empty across all signal types. The picture the 12-month data paints is structurally mixed rather than uniformly quiet.
Violent crime categories are running below their prior-year levels: robbery is down 17.5% (212 incidents vs. 257), aggravated assault down 15.4% (466 vs. 551), and sexual assault down 18.8% (173 vs. 213). Property crime is running in the opposite direction — motor vehicle theft is up 12.3% (348 vs. 310), vandalism up 8.6% (744 vs. 685), and burglary up 5.1% (206 vs. 196). None of those moves generated a signal this month, but the 12-month gap between violent and property crime trends is the structural pattern to watch.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
2,845 incidents over the past 12 months — 18 above Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 2,827.
Open page →Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
2,801 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 2,827.
Open page →Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem
2,952 incidents over the past 12 months — 125 above Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's 2,827.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City has spiked aggravated assault historically (18 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 18 | 100% |
| Robbery | 11 | 100% |
| Sexual assault | 11 | 27.3% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.