Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Hunts Point and Longwood. Anchored by the Hunts Point Cooperative Market and Fulton Fish Market, the New Fulton Fish Market and produce terminal complex, the Bruckner Expressway, and the 6 train along Southern Boulevard.
March 2026 produced a narrow but structurally meaningful picture for Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood. Two categories moved, both as sustained shifts — not one-month dips, but multi-month structural changes in the trailing 12-month window versus the prior year. The signal is concentrated in vehicle-related property crime, and both categories moved in the same direction.
Theft from Vehicle is down 35.0% against the prior 12 months — 145 incidents versus 223 — and Motor Vehicle Theft is down 28.8%, 126 incidents versus 177. Both are classified as sustained shifts, meaning the decline has persisted long enough to register as a structural change rather than noise. Every other tracked category, including Aggravated Assault (down 21.8% over the same window) and Vandalism (down 21.6%), ran within range this month and produced no additional signals.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, down 35% from 223 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 126, down 29% from 177 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
125 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 126.
Open page →Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
130 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 126.
Open page →Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
131 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 126.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.