Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Hunts Point and Longwood. Anchored by the Hunts Point Cooperative Market and Fulton Fish Market, the New Fulton Fish Market and produce terminal complex, the Bruckner Expressway, and the 6 train along Southern Boulevard.
Nine categories moved in Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood this month — seven as sustained structural shifts and two as single-month below-trend signals. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across both violent and property crime: every tracked category is running below its prior 12-month total, several by wide margins.
Vandalism and theft from vehicle each posted below-trend signals this month; vandalism's current 12-month total of 329 runs well under its baseline of 573.5. Robbery is the clearest sustained-shift story — 220 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 295 in the year prior, a 12-month drop of 25.4%. Aggravated assault and motor vehicle theft show the steepest year-over-year moves in the dataset, down 35.7% and 45.9% respectively against the prior 12 months, reinforcing that the shift here is structural, not a single quiet month.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 329 incidents — about 43% below the 574 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 127 incidents — about 46% below the 233 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 766, down 30% from 1,095 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 419, down 36% from 652 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 329, down 35% from 503 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 92, down 46% from 170 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
327 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 329.
Open page →Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
331 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 329.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
335 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 above Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 329.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.