Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Hunts Point and Longwood. Anchored by the Hunts Point Cooperative Market and Fulton Fish Market, the New Fulton Fish Market and produce terminal complex, the Bruckner Expressway, and the 6 train along Southern Boulevard.
Eight categories moved in Bronx CD2, Hunts Point / Longwood this August 2026, with the structure tilted heavily toward longer-term declines rather than single-month noise. Six of the eight signals are sustained shifts, multi-month structural moves visible across the trailing 12 months, not just a quiet August. Two additional categories, vandalism and theft from vehicle, registered one-month below-trend signals on top of that backdrop.
Vandalism is the strongest single-month signal: the current 12-month total of 348 incidents compares to 454 in the prior year, down 23.3%. Theft from vehicle also ran below trend, with 128 incidents against 177 the year before, a 27.7% gap. Robbery's sustained shift tells the bigger structural story: 171 incidents in the current 12 months against 304 in the prior period, a 43.8% decline that has been building across multiple reporting windows. Every other tracked category, including aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, and arson, was also running well below prior-year levels, and none registered a spike.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 348 incidents — about 39% below the 570 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 128 incidents — about 45% below the 232 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 382, down 38% from 619 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 769, down 28% from 1,074 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 76, down 56% from 173 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 171, down 44% from 304 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD9 — Kew Gardens / Woodhaven
350 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 348.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
343 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 348.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
355 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood's 348.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.