Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD17 covers East Flatbush, Remsen Village, Farragut, Erasmus, and Rugby. Anchored by the Kings Highway and Utica Avenue commercial corridors, Kings County Hospital and SUNY Downstate Medical Center on the western edge, and the 2/5 train along Nostrand Avenue.
July 2026 produced a single notable signal in Brooklyn CD17, East Flatbush: a one-month below-trend read on burglary. Every other tracked category came in within its normal range. That restraint is itself meaningful given the breadth of the category list, ten categories tracked, nine of them unremarkable this month.
Burglary's single-month dip lands against an already declining 12-month picture: 132 incidents in the trailing year against 175 the year before, down 24.6%. Aggravated assault and robbery are also running well below their prior-year totals, 664 vs 824 and 217 vs 261 respectively, suggesting the neighborhood's broader violent and property crime volumes are in a sustained downward pattern across multiple categories, not a one-month anomaly.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 132 incidents — about 33% below the 198 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Manhattan CD1 — Financial District / Battery Park / Tribeca
133 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 132.
Open page →Manhattan CD9 — Morningside Heights / Hamilton Heights
128 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 132.
Open page →Queens CD3 — Jackson Heights / East Elmhurst
126 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 132.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.