Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD17 covers East Flatbush, Remsen Village, Farragut, Erasmus, and Rugby. Anchored by the Kings Highway and Utica Avenue commercial corridors, Kings County Hospital and SUNY Downstate Medical Center on the western edge, and the 2/5 train along Nostrand Avenue.
March 2026 produced no tracked signals in Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush. Zero categories crossed the anomaly threshold this month — no spikes, no below-trend moves, no sustained shifts, no rare events. The neighborhood was structurally quiet across all ten tracked categories.
The 12-month totals provide useful context for that quiet. Aggravated assault is down 13.0% against the prior year (751 vs 863), vandalism down 13.7% (734 vs 851), and other larceny down 11.7% (1,642 vs 1,859). Homicide and arson both show large percentage declines — 50.0% and 53.3% respectively — though off very small bases (5 and 7 current-year incidents). Motor vehicle theft is the one category running above the prior-year pace, up 4.7% to 199 incidents, but it did not cross a signal threshold this month. Everything else held within normal range.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Brooklyn CD14 — Flatbush / Midwood
1,640 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 1,642.
Open page →Brooklyn CD11 — Bensonhurst
1,602 incidents over the past 12 months — 40 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 1,642.
Open page →Bronx CD6 — Belmont / East Tremont
1,597 incidents over the past 12 months — 45 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 1,642.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.