Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD17 covers East Flatbush, Remsen Village, Farragut, Erasmus, and Rugby. Anchored by the Kings Highway and Utica Avenue commercial corridors, Kings County Hospital and SUNY Downstate Medical Center on the western edge, and the 2/5 train along Nostrand Avenue.
Six categories moved in Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush this month — two ran below trend in May, four reflect structural sustained shifts that have been building across the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is broadly downward, with declines concentrated in violent crime and property crime alike.
Burglary and robbery each registered below-trend signals this month. Burglary's 12-month total stands at 130 incidents, down 27.0% against the prior year's 178. Aggravated assault has shifted structurally lower — 624 incidents over the current 12 months against 837 the year before, a 25.4% reduction — and sexual assault and other larceny show similar sustained-shift patterns across the same window. Theft from vehicle is the one category that held roughly flat, down only 5.3% year-over-year.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 130 incidents — about 35% below the 199 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 203 incidents — about 28% below the 282 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,341, down 27% from 1,826 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 624, down 25% from 837 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, down 30% from 206 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 27% from 178 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Brooklyn CD6 — Park Slope / Carroll Gardens
131 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 130.
Open page →Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
129 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 130.
Open page →Manhattan CD6 — Stuyvesant Town / Turtle Bay
137 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 130.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.