Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD17 covers East Flatbush, Remsen Village, Farragut, Erasmus, and Rugby. Anchored by the Kings Highway and Utica Avenue commercial corridors, Kings County Hospital and SUNY Downstate Medical Center on the western edge, and the 2/5 train along Nostrand Avenue.
Six categories moved in East Flatbush this August, with no spikes in the mix. Two registered single-month below-trend signals and four reflect structural, multi-month sustained shifts. The overall shape is a broad, durable decline across both violent and property crime.
Burglary is the strongest single signal: 108 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 181 in the prior year, a 40.3% drop. Robbery also appeared twice in the top signals, once as a single-month below-trend reading and once as a sustained shift, with the 12-month count falling from 266 to 192, down 27.8%. Aggravated assault is down 25.8% over the same window, 593 incidents against 799. The rest of the tracked categories follow the same direction; nothing registered above trend this month.
Notable signals 2
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 108 incidents — about 46% below the 198 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 192 incidents — about 32% below the 282 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 593, down 26% from 799 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 108, down 40% from 181 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 192, down 28% from 266 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 145, down 26% from 196 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Bronx CD10 — Throgs Neck / Co-op City
108 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 108.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
107 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 108.
Open page →Brooklyn CD8 — Crown Heights / Prospect Heights
112 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush's 108.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.