Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Downtown Brooklyn, Fort Greene, Boerum Hill, and Vinegar Hill. Anchored by the Brooklyn Bridge and Manhattan Bridge approaches, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Cadman Plaza, the Atlantic Terminal / Barclays Center hub, and the dense subway interchange at Jay Street–MetroTech.
March 2026 was a narrow month in Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene. Only one category moved enough to register a signal: aggravated assault, which came in as a spike against its multi-year baseline.
Aggravated assault's trailing 12-month total is 617 incidents, against a multi-year baseline mean of 407.76 — a substantial gap above historical norms. Elsewhere, the picture is structurally different: burglary is down 22.6% year-over-year (343 vs 443), motor vehicle theft is down 19.6% (176 vs 219), and other larceny is down 11.9% (3,826 vs 4,345). Homicide has dropped from 9 to 2 over the same period — an 77.8% decline. Every other tracked category held within range this month.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 617 incidents — about 51% above the 408 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
616 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 617.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
591 incidents over the past 12 months — 26 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 617.
Open page →Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
581 incidents over the past 12 months — 36 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 617.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.