Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Downtown Brooklyn, Fort Greene, Boerum Hill, and Vinegar Hill. Anchored by the Brooklyn Bridge and Manhattan Bridge approaches, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Cadman Plaza, the Atlantic Terminal / Barclays Center hub, and the dense subway interchange at Jay Street–MetroTech.
Three categories moved in Brooklyn CD2 in July 2026, a narrow month with no spikes and no rare events. One ran below trend for the month, and two reflect structural shifts that have been building across the trailing 12 months. The overall picture is broadly downward, with property crime leading the retreat.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal: the trailing 12-month total stands at 598, well below its prior-year count of 690, a 13.3% year-over-year decline. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are both in sustained multi-month decreases, down 37.9% and 42.4% respectively against the prior 12 months. Everything else tracked this month fell within normal range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 598 incidents — about 35% below the 913 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 269, down 38% from 433 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 125, down 42% from 217 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
596 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 598.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
593 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 598.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
576 incidents over the past 12 months — 22 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 598.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.