Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Downtown Brooklyn, Fort Greene, Boerum Hill, and Vinegar Hill. Anchored by the Brooklyn Bridge and Manhattan Bridge approaches, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Cadman Plaza, the Atlantic Terminal / Barclays Center hub, and the dense subway interchange at Jay Street–MetroTech.
Five categories moved in Brooklyn CD2 this August, one single-month below-trend signal and four sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with the multi-month shifts carrying more weight than any single-month read.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal: 534 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 680 in the prior year, down 21.5%. Burglary and sexual assault are both running on sustained downward trajectories, burglary at 235 incidents vs. 419 the prior year, down 43.9%, and sexual assault at 96 vs. 137, down 29.9%. The three remaining sustained shifts, robbery, aggravated assault, and motor vehicle theft, are similarly below their prior-year levels, and everything else in the tracked categories stayed within range.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 534 incidents — about 41% below the 910 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 2,981, down 27% from 4,107 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 235, down 44% from 419 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 104, down 51% from 213 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 96, down 30% from 137 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
531 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 534.
Open page →Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park
523 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 534.
Open page →Bronx CD7 — Kingsbridge Heights / Bedford
521 incidents over the past 12 months — 13 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 534.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.