Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD2 covers Brooklyn Heights, DUMBO, Downtown Brooklyn, Fort Greene, Boerum Hill, and Vinegar Hill. Anchored by the Brooklyn Bridge and Manhattan Bridge approaches, Brooklyn Bridge Park, Cadman Plaza, the Atlantic Terminal / Barclays Center hub, and the dense subway interchange at Jay Street–MetroTech.
Six signals registered in Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene this month — one single-month below-trend move and five sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The dominant shape is a broad, multi-year pullback across property and violent crime categories, not a single noisy outlier.
Vandalism is the sharpest single-month signal: the current 12-month total sits at 540 against a baseline of 918.64, a gap that represents the deepest below-trend read among the tracked categories. Burglary and theft from vehicle anchor the sustained-shift story — burglary is down 36.7% year-over-year (278 vs. 439) and theft from vehicle is down 28.8% (109 vs. 153), both reflecting multi-month structural change rather than a one-month dip. Aggravated assault, sexual assault, and motor vehicle theft round out the remaining sustained shifts, each also running well below prior-year levels.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 540 incidents — about 41% below the 919 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 3,152, down 26% from 4,268 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 278, down 37% from 439 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 540, down 27% from 739 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 141, down 37% from 223 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD18 — Canarsie / Flatlands
533 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 540.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
532 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 540.
Open page →Manhattan CD2 — Greenwich Village / SoHo
531 incidents over the past 12 months — 9 below Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene's 540.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD2 — Brooklyn Heights / Fort Greene, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.