Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Pelham Parkway, Morris Park, Allerton, Indian Village, Van Nest, and Pelham Gardens. Anchored by the Pelham Parkway boulevard and parkland strip, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Jacobi Medical Center campus, and the 2/5 train along White Plains Road.
Three categories shifted structurally downward in Bronx CD11, Pelham Parkway / Morris Park this August, all three sustained shifts rather than single-month dips. Theft from vehicle, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism are each running well below their prior-year pace across the full trailing 12 months, pointing to a broad, multi-month change in property crime patterns rather than a one-time quiet stretch.
Motor vehicle theft is the strongest of the three, down 39.2% against the prior 12 months, 293 incidents versus 482 in the year before. Theft from vehicle dropped 34.8% over the same window, 184 versus 282. Vandalism fell 29.2%, from 739 to 523. No categories moved in the other direction this month, and nothing outside these three crossed the anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 293, down 39% from 482 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 523, down 29% from 739 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 184, down 35% from 282 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
287 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 293.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
283 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 293.
Open page →Queens CD10 — Howard Beach / Ozone Park
282 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 293.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.