Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Pelham Parkway, Morris Park, Allerton, Indian Village, Van Nest, and Pelham Gardens. Anchored by the Pelham Parkway boulevard and parkland strip, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Jacobi Medical Center campus, and the 2/5 train along White Plains Road.
March 2026 produced two signals in Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park: a single-month aggravated assault spike and a structural robbery increase that has built over the trailing 12 months. The shape is narrow but pointed toward violent crime, with all other tracked categories within their expected ranges.
Robbery's sustained shift is the longer-term story: 319 incidents over the current 12 months against 243 in the prior period, up 31.3% year-over-year. Aggravated assault, this month's spike, sits at 529 over the current 12 months — well above its multi-year baseline of 340.38 — and up 11.8% against the prior 12 months. Burglary, vandalism, and arson all ran below their prior-year levels, and motor vehicle theft, sexual assault, and theft from vehicle moved within a narrow band.
Notable signals 1
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 529 incidents — about 55% above the 340 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 319, up 31% from 243 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Bronx CD2 — Hunts Point / Longwood
513 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 529.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
512 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 529.
Open page →Queens CD14 — Far Rockaway / Broad Channel
504 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 529.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park has spiked sexual assault historically (7 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 27 | 96.3% |
| Other larceny | 7 | 57.1% |
| Sexual assault | 7 | 100% |
| Motor vehicle theft | 6 | 50% |
| Robbery | 3 | — too few |
| Burglary | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across New York); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.