Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers Pelham Parkway, Morris Park, Allerton, Indian Village, Van Nest, and Pelham Gardens. Anchored by the Pelham Parkway boulevard and parkland strip, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine and Jacobi Medical Center campus, and the 2/5 train along White Plains Road.
July 2026 produced a single notable signal in Pelham Parkway / Morris Park: a sustained structural decline in motor vehicle theft. With only one category moving outside its historical range, every other tracked category, robbery, aggravated assault, sexual assault, burglary, theft from vehicle, other larceny, vandalism, and arson, remained within expected bounds for the month.
The motor vehicle theft signal is not a one-month dip. The trailing 12 months show 350 incidents against 473 in the prior 12-month period, a 26.0% reduction that has built over consecutive months rather than landing in a single period. Robbery is the one counter-trend worth watching: up 10.3% year-over-year, 288 incidents against 261, though it has not yet crossed the threshold to register as a formal monthly signal. The overall picture in the neighborhood is downward across most property categories, with that robbery uptick as the main counterpoint.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 350, down 26% from 473 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Bronx CD9 — Parkchester / Soundview
336 incidents over the past 12 months — 14 below Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 350.
Open page →Queens CD5 — Ridgewood / Maspeth
367 incidents over the past 12 months — 17 above Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 350.
Open page →Queens CD12 — Jamaica / Hollis
373 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park's 350.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD11 — Pelham Parkway / Morris Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.