Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers Fordham, University Heights, Morris Heights, and Mount Hope. Anchored by Fordham University's Rose Hill campus, the Fordham Road commercial corridor, the Bronx Community College / NYU Heights campus, and the B/D and 4 subway lines.
One category registered a notable signal in Fordham / University Heights this July: motor vehicle theft, a sustained structural shift downward rather than a single quiet month. Every other tracked category came in within its normal range, making this a narrow but meaningful briefing.
Motor vehicle theft is down 26.4% over the trailing 12 months, 187 incidents against 254 in the prior year. That gap reflects a multi-year directional change, not a one-month anomaly. Other larceny also continues to run well below prior-year levels, 1,255 vs 1,619, and homicide is at 10 incidents vs 14 a year ago, though neither crossed the signal threshold this month. Burglary moved the other direction, 217 incidents against 197, the one category with a meaningful year-over-year increase.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 187, down 26% from 254 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint
189 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 187.
Open page →Bronx CD1 — Mott Haven / Melrose
191 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 187.
Open page →Brooklyn CD12 — Borough Park
197 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 187.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.