Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers Fordham, University Heights, Morris Heights, and Mount Hope. Anchored by Fordham University's Rose Hill campus, the Fordham Road commercial corridor, the Bronx Community College / NYU Heights campus, and the B/D and 4 subway lines.
March 2026 was a quiet month for Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag count sits at zero across all signal types. The broader 12-month picture is what carries the story here.
Homicide is down 47.4% against the prior 12 months — 10 incidents vs. 19 — the sharpest directional move in the data. Burglary moved the other way, up 17.2% (232 vs. 198), and motor vehicle theft is up 7.1% (242 vs. 226). Other larceny, the highest-volume category at 1,410 incidents over the trailing 12 months, is running 11.1% below the prior year. The remaining categories — aggravated assault, vandalism, robbery, sexual assault, theft from vehicle, arson — all came in within a few percent of prior-year levels, with no single-month signal breaking from trend.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Bronx CD3 — Morrisania / Crotona
1,408 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 1,410.
Open page →Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay
1,344 incidents over the past 12 months — 66 below Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 1,410.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
1,331 incidents over the past 12 months — 79 below Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 1,410.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.