Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD5 covers Fordham, University Heights, Morris Heights, and Mount Hope. Anchored by Fordham University's Rose Hill campus, the Fordham Road commercial corridor, the Bronx Community College / NYU Heights campus, and the B/D and 4 subway lines.
Three categories moved in Bronx CD5, Fordham / University Heights this August: one single-month below-trend signal and two structural sustained shifts, both pointing downward. The dominant shape is a multi-year property crime decline, not a one-month fluctuation.
Vandalism is the strongest single-month signal, with the trailing 12-month total at 586 against 719 the prior year, down 18.5%. Other larceny and motor vehicle theft both show sustained multi-month shifts: other larceny is down 29.5% year-over-year (1,135 vs. 1,610), and motor vehicle theft is down 32.8% (170 vs. 253). All other tracked categories remained within their usual ranges this month.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 586 incidents — about 33% below the 870 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,135, down 30% from 1,610 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 170, down 33% from 253 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
593 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 above Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 586.
Open page →Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint
574 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 below Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 586.
Open page →Queens CD1 — Astoria / Long Island City
618 incidents over the past 12 months — 32 above Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights's 586.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Bronx CD5 — Fordham / University Heights, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.