Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 is Central Harlem from West 110th to the Harlem River. Anchored by the 125th Street commercial corridor, the Apollo Theater, Marcus Garvey Park, Striver's Row, and the 2/3 and A/B/C/D subway lines along Lenox and St. Nicholas avenues.
Seven categories moved in Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem this month — four ran below trend in the current window, three registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The direction is uniformly downward: not a single spike or rare-event signal appeared across the tracked categories, and the breadth of the move extends from violent crime through property crime.
Theft from vehicle leads the signals, with the current 12-month total at 137 against a baseline mean of 228.19 — a structural gap, not just a quiet month. Vandalism and robbery also ran below trend; vandalism is down 33.0% against the prior 12 months (610 vs. 911), and robbery is down 27.9% (266 vs. 369). The sustained-shift count of three means these declines have persisted long enough to register as structural, not noise.
Notable signals 4
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 137 incidents — about 40% below the 228 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 610 incidents — about 42% below the 1058 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 266 incidents — about 30% below the 381 average from prior years.
Arson
The past 12 months saw 9 incidents — about 56% below the 20 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 610, down 33% from 911 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 266, down 28% from 369 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 143, down 35% from 220 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
135 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 137.
Open page →Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 137.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
134 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 137.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.