Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 is Central Harlem from West 110th to the Harlem River. Anchored by the 125th Street commercial corridor, the Apollo Theater, Marcus Garvey Park, Striver's Row, and the 2/3 and A/B/C/D subway lines along Lenox and St. Nicholas avenues.
August 2026 brought eight tracked signals across Central Harlem, with no spikes and no rare events. Three categories registered one-month below-trend readings, theft from vehicle, vandalism, and robbery, while five others registered as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The shape of the month is broadly and consistently downward across both violent and property crime.
Theft from vehicle is the strongest single-month signal, with 130 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 175 in the prior year, down 25.7%. Vandalism and robbery reinforce the same direction: vandalism at 629 vs. 915, down 31.3%, and robbery at 237 vs. 359, down 34.0%. The five sustained-shift categories, including motor vehicle theft at -46.5% and homicide at 6 incidents vs. 15, point to reductions that predate August and run across nearly every tracked category.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 130 incidents — about 43% below the 226 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 629 incidents — about 40% below the 1053 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 237 incidents — about 38% below the 380 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 629, down 31% from 915 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 237, down 34% from 359 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 69, down 47% from 129 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 34% from 224 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brooklyn CD15 — Sheepshead Bay
130 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 130.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
129 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 130.
Open page →Queens CD13 — Queens Village / Cambria Heights
129 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 130.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.