Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 is Central Harlem from West 110th to the Harlem River. Anchored by the 125th Street commercial corridor, the Apollo Theater, Marcus Garvey Park, Striver's Row, and the 2/3 and A/B/C/D subway lines along Lenox and St. Nicholas avenues.
Five categories moved in Central Harlem this July, three one-month below-trend drops and two sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across both property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Theft from vehicle, vandalism, and robbery each ran below trend this month, the three strongest signals of the five. Theft from vehicle sits at 152 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 169 in the prior year, down 10.1%. Vandalism and robbery show steeper 12-month declines, vandalism down 24.2% to 697 and robbery down 21.5% to 278, and the two sustained-shift signals suggest these moves have been building over multiple months rather than landing as a single quiet period.
Notable signals 3
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 152 incidents — about 33% below the 227 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 697 incidents — about 34% below the 1055 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 278 incidents — about 27% below the 381 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 80, down 39% from 131 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 160, down 30% from 229 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brooklyn CD1 — Williamsburg / Greenpoint
154 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 152.
Open page →Queens CD8 — Hillcrest / Fresh Meadows
149 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 152.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
148 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 152.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.