Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD10 is Central Harlem from West 110th to the Harlem River. Anchored by the 125th Street commercial corridor, the Apollo Theater, Marcus Garvey Park, Striver's Row, and the 2/3 and A/B/C/D subway lines along Lenox and St. Nicholas avenues.
Three signals moved in Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem this month: two one-month below-trend drops and one sustained structural shift. The overall shape is a broadening property-crime decline, with theft from vehicle appearing twice in the top signals — once as a single-month drop and once as a multi-month structural change — flanked by a below-trend move in vandalism.
Theft from vehicle sits at 159 incidents over the trailing 12 months, down 26.7% against the prior year's 217 and below its multi-year baseline of 229.18 — the sustained-shift signal reflects that this isn't a one-month artifact but a structural repositioning. Vandalism is also running lower, at 754 vs. 927 in the prior 12 months, a 18.7% year-over-year decline. Burglary is the one category running counter to the pattern, up 1.9% (214 vs. 210), but that movement is within a narrow range and did not cross any anomaly threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 159 incidents — about 31% below the 229 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 754 incidents — about 29% below the 1062 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 159, down 27% from 217 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
164 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 159.
Open page →Brooklyn CD17 — East Flatbush
164 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 159.
Open page →Staten Island CD3 — South Shore
151 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 below Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem's 159.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD10 — Central Harlem, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.