Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 is Bedford-Stuyvesant. Anchored by the Restoration Plaza commercial corridor on Fulton Street, Herbert Von King Park, the Bedford-Atlantic and Nostrand Avenue subway stops on the A and C trains, and the historic Stuyvesant Heights brownstone district.
March 2026 was a signal-free month for Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the flag mix is empty across all signal types — no spikes, no below-trend signals, no sustained shifts, no rare events.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Homicide and Arson both ran well below their prior-year totals — 7 vs 14 and 10 vs 21, down 50.0% and 52.4% respectively. Robbery moved in the other direction, 362 incidents against 309 the year before, a 17.2% increase over the trailing 12 months. Vandalism and Theft from Vehicle are also lower year-over-year, down 13.6% and 18.7%, while every other category stayed within a few percentage points of its prior-year level. No single-month anomaly broke through in March, but the 12-month pattern reflects genuine divergence between violent categories and property crime.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Queens CD4 — Elmhurst / Corona
2,701 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 above Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 2,678.
Open page →Manhattan CD12 — Washington Heights / Inwood
2,635 incidents over the past 12 months — 43 below Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 2,678.
Open page →Brooklyn CD5 — East New York / Starrett City
2,801 incidents over the past 12 months — 123 above Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 2,678.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.