Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 is Bedford-Stuyvesant. Anchored by the Restoration Plaza commercial corridor on Fulton Street, Herbert Von King Park, the Bedford-Atlantic and Nostrand Avenue subway stops on the A and C trains, and the historic Stuyvesant Heights brownstone district.
Six categories moved in Brooklyn CD3, Bedford-Stuyvesant this August, four running below trend on a one-month basis and two showing multi-month sustained shifts. The structural direction is broadly downward across both violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare events in the mix.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal: 666 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 978 in the year before, a 31.9% year-over-year drop. Theft from vehicle fell 43.7% on the same basis, from 229 to 129. Aggravated assault also ran below trend this month, sitting at 568 over the current 12 months versus 686 prior, down 17.2%. The rest of the tracked categories were within normal range.
Notable signals 4
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 666 incidents — about 44% below the 1181 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 129 incidents — about 58% below the 306 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 568 incidents — about 20% below the 711 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 2,098 incidents — about 24% below the 2779 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 666, down 32% from 978 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 129, down 44% from 229 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
670 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 666.
Open page →Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
676 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 666.
Open page →Staten Island CD1 — North Shore
637 incidents over the past 12 months — 29 below Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 666.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.