Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD3 is Bedford-Stuyvesant. Anchored by the Restoration Plaza commercial corridor on Fulton Street, Herbert Von King Park, the Bedford-Atlantic and Nostrand Avenue subway stops on the A and C trains, and the historic Stuyvesant Heights brownstone district.
Three signals surfaced in Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant this month: two one-month below-trend drops and one sustained shift. The structural story is vandalism moving in both forms — a single-month drop and a multi-month structural decline running concurrently — with aggravated assault adding a second below-trend reading to an otherwise contained month.
Vandalism is the most prominent signal: the current 12-month total of 688 sits well below the 1,004 recorded in the prior 12 months, a 31.5% reduction year-over-year. Aggravated assault follows a similar arc — 580 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 695 in the year before, down 16.5%. Every other tracked category was within its expected range for the period.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 688 incidents — about 42% below the 1188 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 580 incidents — about 19% below the 712 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 688, down 32% from 1,004 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through May 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
686 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 688.
Open page →Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem
692 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 688.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
681 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant's 688.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.