Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers East Harlem (El Barrio) and Randall's Island. Anchored by the 125th Street and Third Avenue commercial corridors, Mount Sinai Hospital's East Harlem campus, Thomas Jefferson Park along the East River, and the 4/5/6 line on Lexington Avenue.
Five categories moved in Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem in March 2026 — two one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The dominant shape is broadly downward, particularly across violent crime and property categories, with the sustained shifts indicating multi-year realignment rather than a single quiet month.
Vandalism's current 12-month total of 834 incidents sits well below its baseline, continuing a below-trend read alongside arson, which fell 62.5% year-over-year to just 6 incidents against 16 in the prior period. Robbery carries the most structural weight: down 31.0% over the trailing 12 months (349 incidents vs. 506 prior), and one of three categories showing a sustained shift rather than a one-month dip. Theft from Vehicle is the sharpest 12-month mover in the dataset, down 52.3% to 146 incidents from 306; every other tracked category except Sexual Assault — up 13.3% to 238 incidents — also ran below its prior-year level.
Notable signals 2
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 834 incidents — about 33% below the 1254 average from prior years.
Arson
The past 12 months saw 6 incidents — about 72% below the 21 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 146, down 52% from 306 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 349, down 31% from 506 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 130, down 26% from 175 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Manhattan CD5 — Midtown
837 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem's 834.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
811 incidents over the past 12 months — 23 below Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem's 834.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
859 incidents over the past 12 months — 25 above Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem's 834.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.