Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem Crime Rate Trends — New York
CD11 covers East Harlem (El Barrio) and Randall's Island. Anchored by the 125th Street and Third Avenue commercial corridors, Mount Sinai Hospital's East Harlem campus, Thomas Jefferson Park along the East River, and the 4/5/6 line on Lexington Avenue.
Eight categories moved in East Harlem this August, all in the same direction. Three registered one-month below-trend signals (vandalism, arson, robbery) and five show sustained multi-month structural shifts. There is no fresh spike in any tracked category.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal: 676 incidents over the trailing 12 months against 820 in the prior year, down 17.6%. Robbery has fallen further on a percentage basis, 271 incidents against 450 a year ago, a 39.8% reduction. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both crossed 50% below their prior-year totals, 85 vs. 170 and 117 vs. 233 respectively, and those sustained shifts reflect structural change, not just a quiet month.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 676 incidents — about 45% below the 1229 average from prior years.
Arson
The past 12 months saw 7 incidents — about 66% below the 21 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 271 incidents — about 37% below the 428 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 271, down 40% from 450 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 117, down 50% from 233 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 597, down 28% from 830 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 161, down 42% from 278 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Brooklyn CD16 — Brownsville / Ocean Hill
670 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem's 676.
Open page →Brooklyn CD3 — Bedford-Stuyvesant
666 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem's 676.
Open page →Manhattan CD3 — Lower East Side / Chinatown
697 incidents over the past 12 months — 21 above Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem's 676.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Manhattan CD11 — East Harlem, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from the NYPD Complaint dataset on NYC Open Data, mapped to 10 UCR-aligned categories, and aggregated to community district × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.