Hollywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Hollywood is a Central LA neighborhood centered on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and the Pantages and El Capitan theaters along Hollywood Boulevard. Anchored by the Hollywood Bowl, the Capitol Records Building, and the Metro B Line's Hollywood/Highland and Hollywood/Vine stations.
Five categories moved in Hollywood this March — three ran below trend in the current month, two reflect structural shifts that have been building across the trailing 12 months. The overall shape is broadly downward, and it spans both violent and property crime.
Sexual assault is the most pronounced signal: 47 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline of 119.1, and down 42.7% versus the prior year's 82. Robbery is also well below its prior-year pace — 240 incidents against 375, a 36.0% year-over-year decline. Burglary ran below trend as well, current 12 months at 239 against a prior 267, down 10.5%. The two sustained-shift signals indicate these aren't single noisy months; the lower levels across these categories have held long enough to register as structural.
Notable signals 3
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 47 incidents — about 61% below the 119 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 239 incidents — about 44% below the 426 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 240 incidents — about 45% below the 433 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 240, down 36% from 375 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 47, down 43% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hollywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
North Hollywood
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Hollywood's 47.
Open page →Van Nuys
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Hollywood's 47.
Open page →Boyle Heights
41 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Hollywood's 47.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hollywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.