Hollywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Hollywood is a Central LA neighborhood centered on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and the Pantages and El Capitan theaters along Hollywood Boulevard. Anchored by the Hollywood Bowl, the Capitol Records Building, and the Metro B Line's Hollywood/Highland and Hollywood/Vine stations.
Three categories moved in Hollywood this July briefing: one below-trend signal and two sustained structural shifts. The structural pattern is split, burglary running well below its recent range while theft from vehicle and other larceny have both been elevated for long enough to register as multi-year shifts, not single noisy months.
Burglary stands out as the sharpest single signal, with the trailing 12 months at 269 incidents against 328 the prior year, down 18.0%. Theft from vehicle and other larceny are moving in the opposite direction: theft from vehicle is up 41.0% year-over-year (819 vs 581), and other larceny is up 46.2% (1,691 vs 1,157). Those two categories together account for the dominant structural change in Hollywood's property-crime mix. Everything else this month, including robbery, aggravated assault, and vandalism, moved without crossing an anomaly threshold.
Notable signals 1
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 269 incidents — about 37% below the 430 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 1,691, up 46% from 1,157 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Theft from Vehicle is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 819, up 41% from 581 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hollywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Van Nuys
274 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 above Hollywood's 269.
Open page →Sherman Oaks
227 incidents over the past 12 months — 42 below Hollywood's 269.
Open page →Koreatown
315 incidents over the past 12 months — 46 above Hollywood's 269.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hollywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.