Hollywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Hollywood is a Central LA neighborhood centered on the Hollywood Walk of Fame and the Pantages and El Capitan theaters along Hollywood Boulevard. Anchored by the Hollywood Bowl, the Capitol Records Building, and the Metro B Line's Hollywood/Highland and Hollywood/Vine stations.
April 2026 brought six tracked signals across Hollywood — four one-month below-trend moves and two sustained structural shifts. The direction is broadly downward: every tracked category in the 12-month window is running below its prior-year total, and the signal mix reflects that across both violent and property crime.
Sexual assault is the sharpest single move, with 43 incidents over the current 12 months against a baseline of 118.4 — down 47.6% against the prior year. Robbery is similarly pronounced, 227 incidents versus 369 in the year before, a 38.5% reduction. Burglary also ran below trend this month, part of a property-crime picture where theft from vehicle is down 18.3%, motor vehicle theft down 20.3%, and vandalism down 15.5% against their respective prior-year totals.
Notable signals 4
Sexual Assault
The past 12 months saw 43 incidents — about 64% below the 118 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 227 incidents — about 47% below the 431 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 242 incidents — about 43% below the 423 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 436 incidents — about 22% below the 560 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Robbery has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 227, down 39% from 369 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Sexual Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 43, down 48% from 82 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Hollywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month sexual assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable sexual assault levels.”
North Hollywood
45 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Hollywood's 43.
Open page →East Hollywood
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Hollywood's 43.
Open page →San Pedro
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below Hollywood's 43.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Hollywooddoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Other larceny | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Hollywood's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hollywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.