San Pedro Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
San Pedro is the harbor neighborhood at the southern tip of the Los Angeles peninsula, organized around the Port of Los Angeles. Anchored by the Cabrillo Beach lighthouse, Point Fermin Park, the USS Iowa Museum, and the Vincent Thomas Bridge crossing to Terminal Island.
San Pedro registered 13 signals in March 2026 — 7 below-trend drops and 6 sustained structural shifts. That split matters: this isn't a single quiet month but a pattern holding across property crime categories, with multi-year declines now embedded in the neighborhood's baseline.
Theft from Vehicle, Other Larceny, and Vandalism all ran below trend, and the 12-month totals underscore how far volumes have moved. Theft from Vehicle is down 83.3% against the prior year — 37 incidents vs. 222 — while Motor Vehicle Theft fell 85.2% (48 vs. 324) and Burglary dropped 72.3% (26 vs. 94). Aggravated Assault is down 46.2% over the same window, 148 incidents against 275. Every other tracked category except Sexual Assault showed a year-over-year decline; Sexual Assault edged 2.6% above last year's level at 39 incidents.
Notable signals 6
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 91% below the 434 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 106 incidents — about 69% below the 340 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 167 incidents — about 58% below the 402 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 148 incidents — about 42% below the 257 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 48 incidents — about 91% below the 563 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 88% below the 217 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 48, down 85% from 324 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 83% from 222 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 106, down 68% from 329 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 167, down 48% from 322 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How San Pedro compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Arleta
37 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below San Pedro's 37.
Open page →Playa del Rey
34 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 below San Pedro's 37.
Open page →Wilmington
40 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above San Pedro's 37.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for San Pedro, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.