San Pedro Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
San Pedro is the harbor neighborhood at the southern tip of the Los Angeles peninsula, organized around the Port of Los Angeles. Anchored by the Cabrillo Beach lighthouse, Point Fermin Park, the USS Iowa Museum, and the Vincent Thomas Bridge crossing to Terminal Island.
Four categories moved in San Pedro this August, split evenly between single-month below-trend signals and longer structural shifts. The dominant pattern is downward, with two one-month drops and two sustained multi-month moves, all pointing in the same direction across violent and property crime.
Aggravated assault is the strongest signal, appearing both as a one-month drop and as a sustained structural decline: the trailing 12-month total is 178 against 268 in the prior year, a 33.6% reduction. Burglary also ran below trend this month, with 150 incidents over the current 12 months against 175 the year before, down 14.3%. The aggravated assault sustained shift confirms this isn't a one-month dip; the category has been running below its multi-year pace for long enough to qualify as a structural change.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 178 incidents — about 29% below the 250 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 150 incidents — about 32% below the 222 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 178, down 34% from 268 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 326, up 31% from 249 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How San Pedro compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Valley Glen
180 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above San Pedro's 178.
Open page →Reseda
167 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below San Pedro's 178.
Open page →Vermont Vista
167 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below San Pedro's 178.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for San Pedro, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.