San Pedro Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
San Pedro is the harbor neighborhood at the southern tip of the Los Angeles peninsula, organized around the Port of Los Angeles. Anchored by the Cabrillo Beach lighthouse, Point Fermin Park, the USS Iowa Museum, and the Vincent Thomas Bridge crossing to Terminal Island.
San Pedro's April 2026 briefing is defined by broad, structural decline — 13 total signals, split between 7 single-month below-trend readings and 6 sustained multi-year shifts. The movement is concentrated in property and violent crime alike, and the pattern is consistently downward across the board.
Aggravated assault, other larceny, and vandalism all ran below trend this month. The aggravated assault 12-month total stands at 136 against a prior-year figure of 273 — down 50.2% — and motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle show even steeper 12-month declines, at -86.3% and -81.0% respectively. The six sustained-shift signals confirm this isn't a single quiet month; the data reflects a multi-year structural change across most tracked categories in San Pedro.
Notable signals 6
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 136 incidents — about 47% below the 258 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 97 incidents — about 71% below the 340 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 158 incidents — about 61% below the 400 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 91% below the 429 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 40 incidents — about 93% below the 558 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 25 incidents — about 88% below the 214 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 40, down 86% from 291 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 97, down 70% from 323 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 81% from 195 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 136, down 50% from 273 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How San Pedro compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Reseda
137 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above San Pedro's 136.
Open page →North Hills
131 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below San Pedro's 136.
Open page →Chinatown
126 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 below San Pedro's 136.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When San Pedro has spiked other larceny historically (18 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 18 | 44.4% |
| Other larceny | 18 | 100% |
| Burglary | 2 | — too few |
| Robbery | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows San Pedro's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 2 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for San Pedro, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.