San Pedro Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
San Pedro is the harbor neighborhood at the southern tip of the Los Angeles peninsula, organized around the Port of Los Angeles. Anchored by the Cabrillo Beach lighthouse, Point Fermin Park, the USS Iowa Museum, and the Vincent Thomas Bridge crossing to Terminal Island.
Five categories moved in San Pedro in July 2026, two with one-month below-trend readings and three reflecting multi-month structural shifts. The shape of the month is broadly downward across violent and property crime, with no spikes and no rare events. The sustained-shift signals carry the most weight here: they point to changes that have persisted across multiple months, not single-month noise.
Aggravated assault is the strongest signal, down 32.2% against the prior 12 months, 185 incidents vs. 273. Burglary also ran below trend this month and is down 25.4% over the same 12-month window, 141 incidents vs. 189. Other larceny is the one category moving in the opposite direction, up 37.8% year-over-year at 328 incidents vs. 238, and its absence from the top signals means it did not cross the anomaly threshold this month, but the 12-month accumulation is the outlier in an otherwise downward mix.
Notable signals 2
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 185 incidents — about 26% below the 250 average from prior years.
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 141 incidents — about 37% below the 223 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 185, down 32% from 273 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 328, up 38% from 238 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 141, down 25% from 189 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through July 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How San Pedro compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month aggravated assault volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable aggravated assault levels.”
Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
196 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above San Pedro's 185.
Open page →Central-Alameda
196 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 above San Pedro's 185.
Open page →Pacoima
197 incidents over the past 12 months — 12 above San Pedro's 185.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for San Pedro, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.