North Hollywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
North Hollywood is a southeastern San Fernando Valley neighborhood organized around the NoHo Arts District at Lankershim and Magnolia. Anchored by the Metro B Line's North Hollywood terminus and the G Line's eastern terminus, with a dense theater and gallery cluster in the arts district.
Two categories moved in North Hollywood this month — a one-month vandalism spike and a sustained structural shift in other larceny. The overall signal count is small, but the two types point in different directions: property theft is falling on a multi-year basis while vandalism is running above its historical rate.
Other larceny is down 29.5% against the prior 12 months, 616 incidents vs. 874 the year before — a sustained shift, not a single quiet month. Vandalism is the counter-signal: current 12-month volume is 626, above its multi-year baseline of 488.92. Every other tracked category — robbery, aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, burglary, sexual assault — ran within range this month, with several also carrying meaningful year-over-year declines.
Notable signals 1
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 626 incidents — about 28% above the 489 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 616, down 30% from 874 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How North Hollywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Van Nuys
615 incidents over the past 12 months — 11 below North Hollywood's 626.
Open page →Westlake
587 incidents over the past 12 months — 39 below North Hollywood's 626.
Open page →Hollywood
719 incidents over the past 12 months — 93 above North Hollywood's 626.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for North Hollywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.