East Hollywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
East Hollywood is a Central LA neighborhood east of Hollywood, organized around the Sunset and Santa Monica Boulevard corridors and Vermont Avenue. Anchored by the Kaiser Permanente medical campus, Barnsdall Art Park, and the Metro B Line's Vermont/Sunset and Vermont/Santa Monica stations.
Seven categories moved in East Hollywood this March — four below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad, multi-category decline in property crime, not a single outlier pulling the numbers down.
Burglary, theft from vehicle, and motor vehicle theft all ran below trend and lead the top anomalies this month. Burglary is the sharpest single signal: the current 12-month total is 104 incidents against a baseline of 195 — down 20.0% year-over-year. Theft from vehicle and other larceny show the deepest 12-month drops in the neighborhood, off 30.6% and 35.2% respectively. Three of the seven signals are sustained shifts, meaning the declines in those categories have held across multiple months, not just this one.
Notable signals 4
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 104 incidents — about 47% below the 195 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 263 incidents — about 36% below the 412 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 230 incidents — about 37% below the 367 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 118 incidents — about 32% below the 174 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 313, down 35% from 483 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 263, down 31% from 379 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 230, down 28% from 320 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How East Hollywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Mid-Wilshire
104 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below East Hollywood's 104.
Open page →Beverly Grove
102 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below East Hollywood's 104.
Open page →Los Feliz
98 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below East Hollywood's 104.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for East Hollywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.