East Hollywood Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
East Hollywood is a Central LA neighborhood east of Hollywood, organized around the Sunset and Santa Monica Boulevard corridors and Vermont Avenue. Anchored by the Kaiser Permanente medical campus, Barnsdall Art Park, and the Metro B Line's Vermont/Sunset and Vermont/Santa Monica stations.
August 2026 produced a single notable signal in East Hollywood: motor vehicle theft has shifted structurally upward, not a one-month noise event but a sustained multi-month pattern separating the trailing 12 months from the 12 before. Every other tracked category stayed within its normal range this month.
Motor vehicle theft is up 43.9% year-over-year, 295 incidents in the current 12 months against 205 in the prior 12. That gap is the dominant story in the data. Other larceny (430 vs. 364, up 18.1%), robbery (140 vs. 122, up 14.8%), and burglary (157 vs. 138, up 13.8%) are all running above their prior-year totals as well, but none crossed the anomaly threshold this month. The sustained shift in motor vehicle theft is the one category where the volume increase is large enough and consistent enough to read as a structural change rather than month-to-month variation.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft is climbing.
The trailing 12-month count is 295, up 44% from 205 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline up.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How East Hollywood compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Vermont-Slauson
295 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below East Hollywood's 295.
Open page →San Pedro
290 incidents over the past 12 months — 5 below East Hollywood's 295.
Open page →Sun Valley
276 incidents over the past 12 months — 19 below East Hollywood's 295.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for East Hollywood, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.