Chatsworth Reservoir Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Chatsworth Reservoir is the drained municipal reservoir basin in the far northwest San Fernando Valley, decommissioned after the 1971 Sylmar earthquake. Now mostly fenced open space owned by LADWP — almost no residential population, but listed as a neighborhood unit by the LA Times Mapping LA project.
March 2026 was a quiet month in Chatsworth Reservoir — three categories registered as zero-event signals, meaning crime types that occasionally appear here were entirely absent this period. No spikes, drops, or sustained shifts surfaced; the zero-event pattern is the defining shape of the month.
Burglary has fallen 87.5% over the trailing 12 months against the prior year — 1 incident vs. 8 — and vandalism is down 62.5% on the same basis, 3 incidents vs. 8. Everything else in the tracked categories came in within normal range, and with no top anomalies ranked this period, the broader picture is one of low and declining activity across the board.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Chatsworth Reservoir compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month arson volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable arson levels.”
Atwater Village
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chatsworth Reservoir's 0.
Open page →Bel-Air
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chatsworth Reservoir's 0.
Open page →Chatsworth
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Chatsworth Reservoir's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Chatsworth Reservoir, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.