Shadow Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Shadow Hills is a northeastern San Fernando Valley neighborhood between Sunland and Sun Valley, organized around the Hansen Dam recreation area and the equestrian streets that run through the neighborhood.
Shadow Hills registered two below-trend signals in April 2026 — motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle, both running below their multi-year baselines. The rest of the tracked categories held within normal range, making this a narrow, directionally consistent month rather than a broad-based shift.
Motor vehicle theft is the stronger of the two signals: the current 12-month total of 32 is well below the baseline mean of 65.7, and down 36.0% against the prior 12 months (50 incidents). Theft from vehicle tells a similar story — 19 incidents in the current 12-month window against 57 in the year before, a 66.7% decline. Robbery, burglary, and vandalism also show large year-over-year reductions in the 12-month totals, though none crossed the signal threshold this month.
Notable signals 2
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 32 incidents — about 51% below the 66 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 19 incidents — about 79% below the 90 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Shadow Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Arleta
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Shadow Hills's 32.
Open page →Beverly Grove
33 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Shadow Hills's 32.
Open page →Larchmont
31 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Shadow Hills's 32.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Shadow Hills has spiked aggravated assault historically (7 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 57.1% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Aggravated assault | 7 | 57.1% |
| Burglary | 4 | — too few |
Each row shows Shadow Hills's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Shadow Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.