Hansen Dam Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Hansen Dam is the flood-control basin and surrounding recreation area in Lake View Terrace, in the northeast San Fernando Valley. The basin contains Hansen Dam Recreation Center, the Hansen Dam Aquatic Center, an equestrian center, and a golf course; almost no residential population in the polygon itself.
Hansen Dam had a quiet March 2026. The single tracked signal is a zero-event reading for Homicide — a category that surfaced in the prior period but recorded no incidents in the current 12-month window. No categories registered spikes, drops, or sustained shifts this month.
Across the four tracked property categories, all four ran below their prior-year totals. Theft from Vehicle fell 83.3% year-over-year (1 incident vs. 6), Motor Vehicle Theft fell 78.6% (3 vs. 14), Other Larceny fell 50.0% (5 vs. 10), and Vandalism fell 22.2% (7 vs. 9). None of those moves triggered a formal signal this month, which puts them within the expected range given the neighborhood's low baseline volumes.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Vandalism
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
How Hansen Dam compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Adams-Normandie
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Hansen Dam's 0.
Open page →Arlington Heights
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Hansen Dam's 0.
Open page →Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Hansen Dam's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Hansen Dam, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.