Cheviot Hills Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Cheviot Hills is a Westside hillside neighborhood organized around the Hillcrest Country Club and the Rancho Park public golf course. Predominantly Tudor Revival and Spanish Colonial single-family homes on winding streets.
March 2026 was a structurally quiet month in Cheviot Hills. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold — the one signal on record is a zero-event on homicide, meaning the category recorded no incidents over the current 12-month window.
Across the eight tracked categories, the 12-month picture is broadly flat to down. Robbery is down 71.4% against the prior year (2 incidents vs. 7), and sexual assault is down 66.7% (2 vs. 6). Other larceny fell 36.6% (26 vs. 41). Motor vehicle theft is the only category running above the prior year, up 7.1% on low absolute volume (15 vs. 14). Theft from vehicle, vandalism, and aggravated assault all held flat year-over-year.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Cheviot Hills compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month homicide volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable homicide levels.”
Adams-Normandie
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cheviot Hills's 0.
Open page →Arlington Heights
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cheviot Hills's 0.
Open page →Baldwin Hills/Crenshaw
1 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Cheviot Hills's 0.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Cheviot Hills, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.