Atwater Village Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Atwater Village is an Eastside neighborhood across the Los Angeles River from Griffith Park, organized around Glendale Boulevard. Anchored by the Atwater Crossing arts complex, the Glendale-Hyperion Bridge, and the Los Angeles River bike path.
Six categories moved in Atwater Village this March — three one-month below-trend signals and three sustained structural shifts, all running in the same direction. The shape of the month is a broad, multi-year pullback across property crime: theft from vehicle, other larceny, motor vehicle theft, and vandalism have each shed between 26.9% and 59.7% against the prior 12 months.
Other larceny leads the signal list, with 50 incidents in the current 12-month window against a baseline mean of 103.81 — a 49.5% reduction year-over-year. Theft from vehicle follows at 27 incidents vs. 67 the year before, down 59.7%. Motor vehicle theft is at 38 vs. 52, down 26.9%. Aggravated assault is the one counter-trend: 14 incidents against 11 in the prior year, up 27.3%, though volumes remain low in absolute terms.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 50 incidents — about 52% below the 104 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 27 incidents — about 73% below the 102 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 38 incidents — about 37% below the 60 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 27, down 60% from 67 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 50, down 50% from 99 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 39, down 44% from 70 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Atwater Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Pacific Palisades
49 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Atwater Village's 50.
Open page →Tujunga
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Atwater Village's 50.
Open page →Beverlywood
48 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Atwater Village's 50.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Atwater Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.