Atwater Village Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Atwater Village is an Eastside neighborhood across the Los Angeles River from Griffith Park, organized around Glendale Boulevard. Anchored by the Atwater Crossing arts complex, the Glendale-Hyperion Bridge, and the Los Angeles River bike path.
Six categories moved in Atwater Village this April — three one-month below-trend drops and three sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad, multi-year pullback in property crime, not a single noisy month.
Other Larceny, Theft from Vehicle, and Motor Vehicle Theft all ran below trend, and the 12-month totals show the scale of the longer move: Other Larceny is at 44 incidents against a prior-year 99 (down 55.6%), Theft from Vehicle fell from 61 to 26 (down 57.4%), and Vandalism — one of the sustained-shift categories — dropped from 69 to 34 (down 50.7%). Burglary is the one counter-move, up 20.0% on a small base (24 incidents vs. 20), and robbery held flat at 9. Everything else in the neighborhood ran well below its recent range.
Notable signals 3
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 44 incidents — about 58% below the 104 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 26 incidents — about 74% below the 101 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 36 incidents — about 40% below the 60 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 44, down 56% from 99 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 26, down 57% from 61 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 34, down 51% from 69 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Atwater Village compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Beverlywood
46 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Atwater Village's 44.
Open page →Elysian Park
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Atwater Village's 44.
Open page →Jefferson Park
42 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Atwater Village's 44.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Atwater Village has spiked vandalism historically (7 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Vandalism | 7 | 100% |
| Other larceny | 2 | — too few |
Each row shows Atwater Village's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 4 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Atwater Village, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.