Elysian Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Elysian Park is the hillside neighborhood just north of Downtown that contains Dodger Stadium and the 600-acre Elysian Park itself — the city's second-oldest park. A small ridge-top residential pocket on the south slope, with the Police Academy, Grace E. Simons Lodge, and Chavez Ravine as anchors.
Two signals moved in Elysian Park this March — one a single-month below-trend reading, one a multi-month structural shift. The mix is narrow but directionally consistent: both categories that moved are down, and neither is a noise-level fluctuation.
Motor vehicle theft registered the month's sharpest move: 9 incidents over the current 12 months against a prior-year total of 24, a 62.5% year-over-year decline. Theft from vehicle has been running lower for long enough to register as a sustained shift — 22 incidents in the current 12 months vs. 45 in the year before, down 51.1%. Every other tracked category — robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, vandalism, other larceny, sexual assault — came in within normal range this month.
Notable signals 1
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 9 incidents — about 64% below the 25 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 22, down 51% from 45 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Elysian Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Century City
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Elysian Park's 9.
Open page →Griffith Park
8 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Elysian Park's 9.
Open page →Pacific Palisades
10 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Elysian Park's 9.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Elysian Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.