Tujunga Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Tujunga is a far northeastern San Fernando Valley neighborhood at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains, organized around Foothill Boulevard. Anchored by the historic Bolton Hall Museum and the Big Tujunga Wash that runs through the neighborhood.
Four categories moved in Tujunga this March — three one-month below-trend signals and one sustained structural shift. The shape of the month is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare events anywhere in the tracked data.
Burglary is the headline signal: the current 12-month total is 37, down 48.6% against the prior year's 72 and well below the multi-year baseline mean of 85.5. Motor vehicle theft and other larceny also ran below trend — motor vehicle theft is down 31.6% year-over-year (39 vs. 57), and other larceny is down 13.6% (51 vs. 59). Theft from vehicle was the one category that held flat, at 51 incidents against 51 in the prior year.
Notable signals 3
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 37 incidents — about 57% below the 86 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 39 incidents — about 53% below the 84 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 31% below the 74 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Burglary has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 37, down 49% from 72 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Tujunga compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Tujunga, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.