Jefferson Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Jefferson Park is a South LA neighborhood organized around Jefferson Boulevard and Crenshaw Boulevard. Predominantly Craftsman bungalows on a tight grid; bordered by West Adams to the north and Leimert Park to the south.
Jefferson Park had a broadly downward month — 10 tracked signals in April 2026, split across 6 below-trend drops and 4 sustained structural shifts. The pattern holds across both property and violent crime categories, with no spikes or rare-event signals anywhere in the mix.
Burglary is the sharpest mover: the current 12-month total stands at 6 against a prior-year count of 30, down 80.0% year-over-year. Other larceny and vandalism also ran below trend — other larceny is down 47.5% (42 vs. 80 incidents) and vandalism down 35.2% (81 vs. 125). The four sustained-shift signals point to something more structural than a single quiet month; aggravated assault, motor vehicle theft, and other categories are registering multi-month declines, not just April noise.
Notable signals 6
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 6 incidents — about 86% below the 42 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 42 incidents — about 52% below the 88 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 81 incidents — about 30% below the 116 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 92 incidents — about 50% below the 184 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 64 incidents — about 41% below the 108 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 22 incidents — about 40% below the 37 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 64, down 42% from 111 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 42, down 48% from 80 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 92, down 37% from 145 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 81, down 35% from 125 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jefferson Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Mount Washington
6 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Jefferson Park's 6.
Open page →Playa del Rey
6 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Jefferson Park's 6.
Open page →Cypress Park
7 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jefferson Park's 6.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
When Jefferson Park has spiked motor vehicle theft historically (15 events on record), an adjacent neighborhood spiked the same category within 3 months 100% of the time. The strongest-travelling categories sit at the top of the table.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Motor vehicle theft | 15 | 100% |
| Vandalism | 9 | 22.2% |
| Theft from vehicle | 7 | 100% |
| Burglary | 6 | 0% |
Each row shows Jefferson Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 6 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Los Angeles); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jefferson Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Counts from March 2024 onwardrun roughly 10 to 20 percent below LAPD's command-staff totals citywide. LAPD's legacy crime feed froze after a late-2024 cyber incident, and the replacement NIBRS feed has been shipping fewer rows than LAPD's own statistics show. The shortfall is most visible in homicide and in dense south-LA neighborhoods, because the new feed lacks coordinates and resolves location through reporting districts. Trend direction is still meaningful; absolute levels are not directly comparable to LAPD's headline figures.
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from LAPD's open feed on the LA City Open Data portal — the NIBRS-coded feed from 2024-03 onward with UCR backfill to 2020. Mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.