Jefferson Park Crime Rate Trends — Los Angeles
Jefferson Park is a South LA neighborhood organized around Jefferson Boulevard and Crenshaw Boulevard. Predominantly Craftsman bungalows on a tight grid; bordered by West Adams to the north and Leimert Park to the south.
Ten tracked signals across Jefferson Park in March 2026 — six below-trend drops and four sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is a broad, multi-category decline in property crime, not a single outlier pulling the numbers down.
Burglary is the sharpest move: 6 incidents in the current 12 months against a baseline mean of 42.4, down 85.4% from 41 in the prior year. Other larceny and vandalism also ran below trend, off 46.4% and 32.5% year-over-year respectively. The four sustained-shift signals reinforce that these aren't single noisy months — aggravated assault is down 38.0% over the trailing 12 months (67 vs 108), and motor vehicle theft is down 33.6% (101 vs 152), pointing to a structural move rather than a calendar blip.
Notable signals 6
Burglary
The past 12 months saw 6 incidents — about 86% below the 42 average from prior years.
Other Larceny
The past 12 months saw 45 incidents — about 49% below the 89 average from prior years.
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 85 incidents — about 27% below the 116 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 101 incidents — about 45% below the 185 average from prior years.
Aggravated Assault
The past 12 months saw 67 incidents — about 38% below the 108 average from prior years.
Robbery
The past 12 months saw 23 incidents — about 38% below the 37 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Other Larceny has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 45, down 46% from 84 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 101, down 34% from 152 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Aggravated Assault has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 67, down 38% from 108 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 33% from 126 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through March 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Sexual Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Jefferson Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month burglary volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable burglary levels.”
Cypress Park
7 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Jefferson Park's 6.
Open page →Mount Washington
8 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Jefferson Park's 6.
Open page →Playa del Rey
9 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Jefferson Park's 6.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Jefferson Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from SFPD's open dataset, mapped to 10 NIBRS-aligned categories, and aggregated to neighborhood × category × month. Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.