Windsor Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Windsor is a small east Denver neighborhood organized around East 1st Avenue between Yosemite Street and Quebec Street. Predominantly mid-century single-family residential with the namesake Windsor Gardens condominium complex (a large age-55+ community) on its eastern edge.
Four categories moved in Windsor this September, two as single-month below-trend signals and two as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across vehicle-related property crime, with theft from vehicle appearing in both the short-term and longer-term signals this month.
Theft from vehicle and motor vehicle theft both ran below trend in September. Theft from vehicle is the stronger of the two: over the trailing 12 months, 51 incidents were recorded against 99 in the prior 12-month period, a 48.5% year-over-year reduction. Motor vehicle theft is down 31.6% on the same basis, 80 incidents vs. 117. The sustained-shift pattern on theft from vehicle confirms this is not a one-month dip; the category has been structurally lower for multiple months running.
Notable signals 2
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 51 incidents — about 64% below the 141 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 80 incidents — about 63% below the 217 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 51, down 49% from 99 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 80, down 32% from 117 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Windsor compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month theft from vehicle volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable theft from vehicle levels.”
Harvey Park South
51 incidents over the past 12 months — 0 below Windsor's 51.
Open page →College View - South Platte
52 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 above Windsor's 51.
Open page →Harvey Park
50 incidents over the past 12 months — 1 below Windsor's 51.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Windsor, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.