Speer Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Speer is the long, narrow neighborhood organized around Speer Boulevard between Cherry Creek and West 7th Avenue. A mix of pre-war apartment buildings, post-war high-rise condos, and the Cherry Creek Trail running through Cherry Creek itself; one of Denver's densest residential neighborhoods by population.
April 2026 was a quiet month in Speer — no tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and no notable signals surfaced across the neighborhood's crime mix.
The 12-month picture is more varied. Burglary is down 26.3% against the prior year (84 incidents vs 114), and motor vehicle theft is down 22.0% (85 vs 109) — both meaningful structural moves in the right direction. Robbery doubled over the same window, from 5 to 10 incidents, though at those volumes the shift is small in absolute terms. Every other tracked category — theft from vehicle, other larceny, vandalism, aggravated assault — fell within a narrow range of the prior year, none moving more than 19.0%.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Speer compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
North Capitol Hill
233 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Speer's 231.
Open page →Lincoln Park
239 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Speer's 231.
Open page →Baker
247 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 above Speer's 231.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Speer, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.