Speer Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Speer is the long, narrow neighborhood organized around Speer Boulevard between Cherry Creek and West 7th Avenue. A mix of pre-war apartment buildings, post-war high-rise condos, and the Cherry Creek Trail running through Cherry Creek itself; one of Denver's densest residential neighborhoods by population.
September 2026 produced a single notable signal in Speer: a sustained structural shift in motor vehicle theft, not a one-month dip but a multi-month pattern now embedded in the trailing 12-month totals. Everything else across the seven tracked categories stayed within normal range.
Motor vehicle theft is down 35.0% against the prior 12 months, 65 incidents vs 100 in the year before, the clearest directional move in the neighborhood this period. Other larceny also fell meaningfully over the same window, down 16.4% (209 vs 250), and aggravated assault is 11.1% below its prior-year count. Theft from vehicle is the one category moving the other direction, up 9.3% year-over-year, though no single-month anomaly triggered there this briefing.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 65, down 35% from 100 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through September 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Speer compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month motor vehicle theft volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable motor vehicle theft levels.”
Bear Valley
67 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Speer's 65.
Open page →Mar Lee
63 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 below Speer's 65.
Open page →City Park West
61 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 below Speer's 65.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Speer, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.