Speer Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Speer is the long, narrow neighborhood organized around Speer Boulevard between Cherry Creek and West 7th Avenue. A mix of pre-war apartment buildings, post-war high-rise condos, and the Cherry Creek Trail running through Cherry Creek itself; one of Denver's densest residential neighborhoods by population.
August 2026 was a quiet month for Speer. No tracked category crossed an anomaly threshold, and the signal count across all crime types was zero. The story this month is structural: a broad, multi-category downward trend in the trailing 12 months, with only two categories running modestly above their prior-year levels.
Motor vehicle theft is down 27.7% year over year, 73 incidents against 101 in the prior 12 months. Other larceny fell 15.6%, and aggravated assault dropped 14.8%, from 27 to 23 incidents. Burglary and theft from vehicle each edged slightly above last year's pace, 92 vs. 87 and 210 vs. 202 respectively, but neither moved enough to register as an anomaly. The overall picture is a neighborhood trending down across most categories, with no acute signals this month.
Notable signals 0
Nothing notable surfaced this month — every category sits within normal range against its baseline.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
No sustained shifts surfaced this month.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Speer compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month other larceny volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable other larceny levels.”
Lincoln Park
225 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Speer's 221.
Open page →Gateway - Green Valley Ranch
215 incidents over the past 12 months — 6 below Speer's 221.
Open page →Baker
229 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Speer's 221.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Speer, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.