Lincoln Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Lincoln Park is the inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of downtown's CBD, between Cherry Creek and West 6th Avenue. The Santa Fe Drive arts district runs through the eastern half; the northern edge transitions to dense mid-rise residential and the older Auraria-area industrial buildings.
Five categories moved in Lincoln Park this June — three registered below-trend drops and two as sustained multi-month structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property crime, with no spikes or rare-event signals in the mix.
Vandalism leads the signals: the trailing 12-month total is 156 incidents against a baseline of 230.7, and down 30.7% against the prior year's 225. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle both ran below trend as well — motor vehicle theft is down 57.5% year-over-year (82 incidents vs. 193), and theft from vehicle fell 15.3% (155 vs. 183). Other larceny, up 2.6%, was the one category that didn't follow the downward pattern, but its move was small enough to stay outside the signal threshold.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 156 incidents — about 32% below the 231 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 82 incidents — about 66% below the 243 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 155 incidents — about 31% below the 226 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 82, down 58% from 193 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 156, down 31% from 225 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through June 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lincoln Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Baker
158 incidents over the past 12 months — 2 above Lincoln Park's 156.
Open page →Civic Center
159 incidents over the past 12 months — 3 above Lincoln Park's 156.
Open page →Montbello
149 incidents over the past 12 months — 7 below Lincoln Park's 156.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lincoln Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.