Lincoln Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Lincoln Park is the inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of downtown's CBD, between Cherry Creek and West 6th Avenue. The Santa Fe Drive arts district runs through the eastern half; the northern edge transitions to dense mid-rise residential and the older Auraria-area industrial buildings.
Five categories moved in Lincoln Park in August 2026, three one-month below-trend signals and two sustained multi-month shifts. The structural direction is uniformly downward: every category with a tracked signal ran below its historical pace, and no category spiked or surfaced as a rare event. The breadth of the decline, across property crime and violent crime alike, is the defining shape of the month.
Vandalism is the strongest single signal, with 143 incidents over the current 12 months against 213 in the prior year, a 32.9% reduction. Motor vehicle theft is down 50.9% year-over-year, 85 incidents vs. 173, and theft from vehicle fell 16.8%, 144 vs. 173. Aggravated assault also continues lower, 56 incidents against 73 the prior year, a 23.3% decline. The rest of the tracked categories were similarly subdued, with other larceny essentially flat at -0.4%.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 143 incidents — about 38% below the 229 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 85 incidents — about 65% below the 239 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 144 incidents — about 35% below the 223 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 85, down 51% from 173 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Vandalism has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 143, down 33% from 213 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through August 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lincoln Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
Montbello
147 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Lincoln Park's 143.
Open page →Speer
147 incidents over the past 12 months — 4 above Lincoln Park's 143.
Open page →Civic Center
151 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Lincoln Park's 143.
Open page →Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lincoln Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.