Lincoln Park Crime Rate Trends — Denver
Lincoln Park is the inner-ring neighborhood immediately south of downtown's CBD, between Cherry Creek and West 6th Avenue. The Santa Fe Drive arts district runs through the eastern half; the northern edge transitions to dense mid-rise residential and the older Auraria-area industrial buildings.
Five categories moved in Lincoln Park this April — three one-month below-trend signals and two sustained structural shifts. The overall shape is broadly downward across property and violent crime, with no spikes or rare events in the mix.
Vandalism leads the below-trend signals: the trailing 12-month total is 170 incidents against a multi-year baseline of 231.63. Motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicle also ran below trend this month; over the full 12-month window, motor vehicle theft is down 50.5% (98 vs. 198 in the prior year) and theft from vehicle is down 25.3% (148 vs. 198). The two sustained shifts extend the picture further — robbery is down 43.2% and aggravated assault down 24.1% over the same 12-month stretch, both signaling a multi-year structural move, not just a quiet April.
Notable signals 3
Vandalism
The past 12 months saw 170 incidents — about 27% below the 232 average from prior years.
Motor Vehicle Theft
The past 12 months saw 98 incidents — about 60% below the 244 average from prior years.
Theft from Vehicle
The past 12 months saw 148 incidents — about 35% below the 228 average from prior years.
All categories, last 24 months
Each panel: recent monthly count vs. trailing 12-month context. MoM is the most recent month vs. the one before; 12mo YoY compares the trailing year to the year before that.
What's been quietly true for a year
Spikes get attention. Sustained shifts shape policy. These are multi-quarter patterns where the past 12-month total differs meaningfully from the year before — they often precede the baseline resetting.
- Motor Vehicle Theft has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 98, down 51% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
- Theft from Vehicle has reset to a lower baseline.
The trailing 12-month count is 148, down 25% from 198 the year before. If the trend holds another quarter, it will pull the multi-year baseline down.
What next month likely looks like
Forecasts trained through April 2026, with a likely range we're 95% confident the actual count will fall inside. Categories with too little recent volume — or violent categories at the neighborhood level — show no forecast and are surfaced through signals above instead. See the methodology page for the gating rules.
Aggravated Assault
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Arson
Below the volume threshold for a reliable forecast — too few incidents in recent months to project from.
Burglary
Homicide
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Motor Vehicle Theft
Other Larceny
Robbery
Too low-volume per neighborhood for a reliable point forecast — see the rare-event and streak-break signals above instead.
Theft from Vehicle
Vandalism
How Lincoln Park compares
Peer neighborhoods picked by closest 12-month vandalism volume — a pragmatic v1 of peer matching. Demographic / housing-stock peer matching isn't built yet (we deliberately don't ingest income or race data alongside crime). Volume similarity has the right intuition: “neighborhoods experiencing comparable vandalism levels.”
West Colfax
178 incidents over the past 12 months — 8 above Lincoln Park's 170.
Open page →Union Station
180 incidents over the past 12 months — 10 above Lincoln Park's 170.
Open page →Civic Center
154 incidents over the past 12 months — 16 below Lincoln Park's 170.
Open page →Do crime spikes here spill over to adjacent neighborhoods?
Lincoln Parkdoesn't have enough spike history in any single category for a stable spillover rate yet (we want at least 5 events). The table below lists what we have.
| Category | Spike events | Same-category spillover |
|---|---|---|
| Robbery | 2 | — too few |
| Aggravated assault | 1 | — too few |
Each row shows Lincoln Park's historical spike events for that category, and how often any of its 7 adjacent neighborhoods spiked the same category within the next 3 months. A high same-category rate suggests a shock that travels (e.g. theft crews moving across Denver); a low rate means spikes here tend to be local to the neighborhood. Categories with fewer than 5 historical spike events are listed but their rates are suppressed.
Recurring local terms (last 12 months)
Top terms in incident descriptions for Lincoln Park, excluding generic crime taxonomy. Useful as texture — what kinds of specifics show up here that don't show up elsewhere.
Hour-of-day, day-of-week, and seasonality
Distribution of bucketed incidents in this neighborhood across the full analysis window. Useful for routine context — shopping-strip thefts vs. late-night assaults read very differently when you can see when each typically happens.
How we built this page
Data → Anomalies → Forecast → Page
Incident data is pulled from Denver Open Data — DPD's NIBRS-coded crime offenses on ArcGIS Hub — mapped to 9 NIBRS-aligned categories (sexual assault is excluded because DPD redacts victim-bearing rows from the public feed). The feed publishes a 5-year rolling window so the analysis baseline starts at 2021-01. Aggregated to statistical neighborhood × category × month.Anomalies are surfaced using strict thresholds (~p < 0.01). Forecasts are Prophet with low-count gating; violent categories at the neighborhood level skip the forecast and show rare-event / streak signals instead.
Spike rule: 12-mo total > baseline mean + 2.5σ AND ≥ 20 incidents AND 6-mo confirms. Drop rule: 12-mo total < baseline mean − 2.5σ AND baseline mean ≥ 20. Rare event: any incident in the last 90 days, no prior comparable in ≥ 5 years.